All your favorite characters are competing for the same NBA award once again.
Nikola Jokić is the MVP favorite. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander follows him up. Two-time winner Giannis Antetokounmpo is on their tails, as are Jayson Tatum and Luka Dončić. Those five made up First Team All-NBA last season. Now, they make up the quintet atop the 2024-25 MVP race.
Christmas isn’t just Santa’s day. It’s also the marker of when NBA talk reaches the public sphere, which means it’s time to discuss the battles for the league’s most prestigious awards.
For MVP, the fight isn’t so bloody. Jokić is the obvious No. 1 today. He’s three-tenths of an assist away from averaging a triple-double; the advanced metrics (which have always painted him as a higher being) are greater than ever; and the shooting splits are out of a video game. On top of it all, he’s nailing a league-leading 51 percent of his 3-pointers.
If the season ended today, a fourth Jokić MVP would be on the way. Of course, there are still more than four months to go.
It’s difficult to infuse a team’s record into any reasonable candidate’s argument right now. Jokić’s Denver Nuggets provide the perfect example.
Denver is 16-11, fifth in the Western Conference. It is only two back of second place in the loss column. Yet, it’s only two up of ninth place in the loss column.
One bad week, and the Nuggets are in the bottom half of the Play-In Tournament, which would bump Jokić down a slot or two. It’s difficult to dub someone MVP if his team isn’t in the playoffs, even if Jokić somehow breaks mathematics as we know them and starts shooting 107 percent from the field.
Gilgeous-Alexander could become the favorite to win his first MVP in that case. His Oklahoma City Thunder are atop the Western Conference, and he’s the leading reason. Or maybe the Milwaukee Bucks go on a run, which inspires a third trophy for Antetokounmpo. Neither Tatum nor Dončić is out of the race, either.
As of today, my ballot would include those five. Let’s go with:
- Nikola Jokić
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Jayson Tatum
- Luka Dončić
But the MVP race is not done — nor are others.
The NBA is littered with interesting awards races so far this season. Here are four more of them:
Who finishes second and third in Defensive Player of the Year?
Just look at how the Philadelphia 76ers ended the first quarter Monday night.
All they wanted to do was get up a shot, any shot, before the buzzer sounded. Their only strategy was to pray. That was not enough.
Kyle Lowry rose for a fadeaway jumper with seemingly no one around him, but the San Antonio Spurs employ one man whose arms appear twice the width of the court. That man swatted Lowry, then trailed Caleb Martin, who recovered the loose ball, and knocked Martin’s shot out of bounds at the buzzer.
We don’t need to call any award race over yet, especially because players must participate in at least 65 games to be eligible for most of them, but there is an obvious leader in Defensive Player of the Year. If Victor Wembanyama is on the court, you don’t score on the Spurs. He has 18 blocks over his past two games alone. He’s pacing to become the first player to average four rejections a game since Dikembe Mutombo in 1995-96 — and keep in mind, it was far easier to block shots then, considering how many more were inside the 3-point arc. The Spurs defense is more than 10 points per 100 possessions better when Wembanyama is on the court.
He is the world’s greatest defender right now. But who could follow him on the ballot?
Could there be an all-French top two? Rudy Gobert, the four-time winner of this award, has still helped the Minnesota Timberwolves to sixth in points allowed per possession, despite holes elsewhere on the roster. Opponents stop attacking the paint whenever Gobert is around. His team allows 8.3 percent fewer shots at the rim when he’s on the court, the largest differential for any player in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass. Almost all of those layups turn into midrange jumpers, not 3s.
Could it be Bam Adebayo, who has a similar effect on the Miami Heat’s opponent shot profile? Could Jaren Jackson Jr. contend for a second Defensive Player of the Year? Could Evan Mobley re-enter the conversation he was in a couple of years ago, when he finished second? The Cleveland Cavaliers own the best record in the league, and opponents are shooting 9.3 percentage points worse at the rim when Mobley is on the court, by far the largest differential in the NBA.
Could a perimeter player vault to the spot behind Wembanyama? Defensive Player of the Year is usually reserved for big men, but Dyson Daniels might have something to say about that. Daniels is getting steals on 4.4 percent of his possessions, the highest steal rate for any player since Tony Allen in 2010-11. He has 72 more deflections than De’Aaron Fox, who is second in the league. For reference, that’s the same difference as the one between Fox and 147th place. Daniels isn’t just a gambler. He’s a pest on the ball. Dribblers can’t jolt past him. As long as he keeps performing like this, he’s a lock for All-Defense, but he has two main knocks against him.
First, a perimeter player can’t affect team defense like a big man can. And second (which may just be further proof of the previous point), the Hawks are actually better defensively with Daniels off the court. And that’s not just because Daniels plays many of his minutes alongside the defensively challenged Trae Young. When Daniels is on the court and Young is off, the Hawks defense is a sieve.
If not Daniels, does OG Anunoby, an off-ball maestro who can cut off an entire side of the court, have a case to slide onto the ballot? How about Amen Thompson, who comes off the bench in Houston but still inspires fury among opposing starters like few others? The Rockets may be the NBA’s most-physical team defending the perimeter. No one there is better in that aspect than Thompson.
Ballot, as of today:
1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Dyson Daniels
3. Evan Mobley
What is a most improved player?
Franz Wagner was the obvious choice here, but an oblique injury will likely make him ineligible to win. And because of that, debating who is the most improved will say more about the debaters than it will about the candidates.
Is a vast improvement in shot-making the way to determine the victor? If so, the LA Clippers’ Norman Powell is the current favorite, but it’s still early enough and Powell’s scoring numbers (24.1 points per game and 47 percent 3-point shooting on 8.1 attempts a night) are so through the roof that there must be some regression on the way — though it’s not like Powell is putting up empty numbers. The Clippers are winning more than anyone could have expected, and their offense is more than 10 points per 100 possessions better with Powell on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass.
GO DEEPER
How Norman Powell, with Kobe’s help, is making an NBA All-Star case
Payton Pritchard has a case. He’s nearly doubled his 3-point volume, is sinking a higher percentage than ever, is the planet’s sneakiest offensive rebounder and has gone from cutesie, full-court-shot specialist to Sixth Man of the Year leader.
De’Andre Hunter is another player who’s hitting jumpers like never before, though he’s developed in other ways, too. He’s getting to the line more than ever. Hunter used to avoid contact. Now he finishes through it, a big sticking point for Hawks head coach Quin Snyder.
Yet, there are other types of improvement to deliberate.
Another Hawk, Jalen Johnson, should be on the list. Atlanta has handed more opportunities to Johnson this season, who is a better facilitator than ever. He’s never created his own shot this much and has never set up teammates like this. The Hawks offense is not just the Young show anymore. And Johnson is putting up the counting stats we normally associate with winners of this award: 19.4 points, 10.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists. He might be an All-Star this season.
RJ Barrett’s passing is worth a mention. Barrett has gone from looking for his shot first, second and third to learning how to change speeds in pick-and-rolls. He loves flinging cross-court zingers to shooters while leading the break. He had never posted a double-digit assist game coming into this season. He’s already done it five times in 2024-25. His assist rate right now is twice his career average.
Some other players who could sneak onto the list include Cade Cunningham (who is running an offense better than ever and should be an All-Star), Daniels (because of the defensive leap), Mobley (who is handling the ball more than ever in Cleveland) and Nikola Vučević (whose percentages put prime Dirk Nowitzki to shame and must be bound to come down but for now force his entry onto this list).
Ballot, as of today:
1. Jalen Johnson
2. Norman Powell
3. RJ Barrett
Who lands the final spot on the Rookie of the Year ballot?
As with M.I.P., one player had first place virtually locked up, and then that player (in this case, the 76ers’ Jared McCain) got hurt. Now, the race for Rookie of the Year has all the vibes of the one from 2017, when second-round pick Malcolm Brogdon won.
This season’s Brogdon is the Grizzlies’ Jaylen Wells, a fellow second-rounder who is starting for a top-three team in the West and has been highly efficient in the process. The Pelicans’ Yves Missi is doing his best to make something of a lost season in New Orleans. Tune into the Pels each month and Missi, a ferocious finisher and top-flight athlete, is doing something new a bit better.
GO DEEPER
Hollinger: These players are threatening to make 2024 an upside-down draft
As with M.I.P., your third-place choice might say more about you than it does about the candidates.
The Spurs’ Stephon Castle has started for a winning team and is already a feisty defender, but the shooting isn’t up to snuff yet. The Grizzlies’ Zach Edey has missed some time and isn’t playing loads of minutes but is a scoring machine already. The Hawks’ Zaccharie Risacher cannot make a shot but is one of a few long defenders Atlanta has lining its wings. The Trail Blazers’ Donovan Clingan isn’t playing much but would own the NBA’s second-highest block rate (behind only Wembanyama) if he qualified for the league leaders. The Lakers’ Dalton Knecht isn’t connecting lately but has started occasionally for a winning team and is liable to catch fire at any point.
The candidates are underwhelming. But you have to choose three.
Ballot, as of today:
1. Jaylen Wells
2. Yves Missi
3. Stephon Castle
The Coach of the Year race
There isn’t a coach with a more difficult job this season than the Spurs’ Mitch Johnson, who had to take over a young team that hasn’t finished above .500 in six years after Gregg Popovich suffered a stroke. Yet, as the Spurs await Popovich’s return, they are 15-14. Just about every player is performing at his capabilities.
And yet, it doesn’t matter when it comes to awards.
Toss Johnson’s résumé into the same bin that held Luke Walton’s in 2016, when the Golden State Warriors went 39-4 after Walton took over temporarily for head coach Steve Kerr, who could not patrol the sidelines during that time because of a back injury. Johnson is not officially the head coach of the Spurs and thus is not eligible for Coach of the Year.
But even without him, there are too many qualified candidates to choose from. At least six coaches could justify first-place votes.
Kenny Atkinson took over a team that underwhelmed a season ago and has helped it to the best record in the NBA. The Cavs are 26-4.
GO DEEPER
Inside the low-tech meeting that supercharged Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs
Jamahl Mosley’s Magic have suffered injury after injury. Paolo Banchero, the team’s sole All-Star, has played five games all season. Now, both Wagners (Franz and Moe) are out. Yet, Orlando’s identity is distinct. Battle the Magic and, win or lose, you will leave the arena with a sore back, neck, shoulder, knee — you name it. Most importantly, they’re winning: 19-12, fourth in the East.
Taylor Jenkins has transformed the 20-10 Grizzlies. If you think NBA teams all play the same style nowadays, check out Memphis. Jenkins and assistant Noah LaRoche have implemented an offense based around quirky cutting, stuff few others around the league are running. The Grizzlies use an extended rotation and don’t run their guys for many minutes. No one averages more than 28. It’s working. Memphis is a contender.
After Paul George left in free agency and without Kawhi Leonard even playing a game yet, the Clippers should not be this good, sitting at 17-13 as they await the return of Leonard. They guard like maniacs. Such is the beauty of employing Ty Lue, who has somehow never won this award.
Ime Udoka has the most typical case. The Rockets are the NBA’s surprise team. Their identity could not have adjusted more from its one before Udoka arrived in town. Houston tosses hound after hound at its opponents. It plays as hard as any team in the league. It’s disciplined. No one wants to face the Rockets, who are young, yet are second in the league in points allowed per possession.
Let’s throw reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault into the mix, too. The Thunder are in the process of running away with the West despite a significant injury to rising star Chet Holmgren.
Voters could justify including the Heat’s Erik Spoelstra whenever they want. The New York Knicks’ Tom Thibodeau helped a renovated, offense-first roster to a 19-10 record. Michael Malone is navigating injuries aplenty and the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out West.
This is unquestionably the most gut-wrenching ballot to fill out right now.
Ballot, as of today:
1. Kenny Atkinson
2. Ime Udoka
3. Jamahl Mosley
(Top photo of Jaylen Wells: Justin Ford / Getty Images)