Why U.S. women’s soccer isn’t the favorite to win Olympic gold

Alyssa Naeher has done things no other goalkeeper in U.S. Soccer history has done.

She’s won two World Cups, posted shutouts in more than 62% of her starts and converted penalty kicks in elimination games at the World Cup, CONCACAF Gold Cup and SheBelieves Cup final.

You can put Hope Solo and Briana Scurry’s career stats together and they don’t match that.

Yet one big gap still remains in that résumé because, for all she’s accomplished, Naeher never has won an Olympic gold medal. She’ll take a shot at changing that beginning Thursday, the day before the Paris Games officially open, when the U.S. faces Zambia in its first group-play match in the French Riviera city of Nice.

2024 Paris Summer Olympic Games

“It’s certainly something that has been a goal of mine since I started out,” Naeher said. “You compete for gold medals, you compete for championships, you compete to be able to represent your country on the biggest stage.

“To win a gold medal this summer would be incredible and certainly something that I would love to add to my career.”

In three visits to the World Cup, Naeher hasn’t lost a game, pitching seven shutouts and giving up just four goals in 11 games. The Olympics haven’t gone as smoothly.

In 2016 in Brazil, Naeher gave up the game’s only goal in a loss to France in group play before the U.S. was eliminated by Sweden in the quarterfinals on penalty kicks, marking the first time the Americans failed to reach the gold-medal final. Then in Tokyo she was forced out of the semifinal with Canada midway through the first half because of a bone contusion and a hyperextended right knee.

Without her, the U.S. lost that game 1-0 and had to settle for a bronze medal. And that leaves Naeher with some unfinished business to attend to this summer.

“It’s always disappointing to have to leave the game with an injury,” she said. “You put everything into the preparation and I didn’t get to finish that. We came up short.

“The Olympics are very unique. You are considered part of Team USA. Incredible athletes from around the United States. It’s an honor to be able to be not just part of the women’s national team, but to be part of Team USA.”

U.S. goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher blocks a shot during a shootout victory over the Netherlands at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.

U.S. goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher blocks a shot during a shootout victory over the Netherlands at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

However these Games could be the roughest yet for Naeher and the U.S. given the depth and strength of the tournament field and the lackluster performance of the American team of late. And the chance at redemption they offer isn’t just for the goalkeeper. Half the 18 women on the U.S. roster have come up short in a previous Olympic tournament and 10 played in last summer’s World Cup, which the U.S. exited in the round of 16 for the first time.

In the wake of that World Cup debacle, Vlatko Andonovski resigned as coach and was replaced by former Chelsea boss Emma Hayes, who will be managing a national team in a competitive tournament for the first time. Her team warmed up for that with two send-off games, an unconvincing 1-0 win over Mexico and a scoreless draw with Costa Rica — not exactly the kind of momentum Hayes was hoping to take to France.

The roster Hayes chose is the youngest the U.S. has sent to the Olympics in 16 years, averaging 26.8 years of age, a full four years younger than the team in Tokyo. It’s also the first U.S. roster for a major international championship in 16 years not to include Alex Morgan, making Naeher, at 36, the oldest player on the team and, with 106 caps, the third-most experienced as well.

And that versatility and youth will come in handy since the Olympic tournament will require teams to play six games in 17 days to reach the gold-medal final.

For forward Mallory Swanson, like Naeher, the tournament also is doubly important. Swanson didn’t make the cut for the Tokyo team. Then, after leading the U.S. in scoring last year, she missed the World Cup because of injury. So, like Naeher, she is seeking redemption, knowing that the next tournament isn’t guaranteed, much less the next game.

“Every major tournament is just as important as any other,” said Swanson, 26, who has two goals and two assists in six games since coming back. “You never want to take anything for granted — that’s not only in soccer, but that’s in life in general.”

Given the results of the last world championships, no one can afford to take anything for granted in France. Just once previously has the U.S. played in consecutive global competitions — the World Cup and Olympics — without winning at least one of the two. If the Americans don’t triumph in Paris, it would be the team’s first world championship three-peat of failure.

Given the program’s deep history and tradition, built on a progression of great players that have passed the baton from Julie Foudy and Mia Hamm to Abby Wambach and Carli Lloyd to Megan Rapinoe and Morgan, no one wants to see that relay race stop now.

“We’re just renting these jerseys and having that kind of mindset is super important,” Swanson said. “What makes this team so special is you have that balance of the competitive nature, but also we’re all friends, we all get along. At the end of the day we all have fun, but we’re all focused on the process.”

U.S. forward Mallory Swanson controls the ball during an international friendly against Costa Rica on July 16.

U.S. forward Mallory Swanson controls the ball during an international friendly against Costa Rica on July 16.

(Nick Wass / Associated Press)

These Games could be the toughest for the four-time champions, who haven’t climbed to the top step of the Olympic medal podium since 2012. After Zambia, the fifth-ranked U.S. will conclude group play against No. 4 Germany and No. 12 Australia, which made the semifinals of both the last World Cup and the Tokyo Olympics.

Given the U.S. team’s play in the last two warmup games, exiting the tournament in the group stage for the first time is a possibility. And if they make it to the knockout rounds, the Americans are likely to find top-ranked Spain, the reigning world champions; host France, ranked second in the world; Canada, the defending Olympic champion; as well as Brazil and Japan, who also rank in FIFA’s top 10.

It’s arguably the deepest, most balanced Olympic field in history, and one that won’t be intimidated by the slumping U.S.

“The realities are the world game is where it is and the rest of the world do not fear the USA in the way they once did,” Hayes, who spent the last 12 years in London, said when she came to the U.S. in May. “And that’s valid. There are different world champions, there are different Olympic champions. So it’s our job to grasp quite quickly what we need to do to get close to those levels.”

They could start by getting Naeher the one prize she’s still missing.

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