Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady: If Chiefs win Tremendous Bowl, there shall be a brand new playoff GOAT

If Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas Metropolis Chiefs win the Tremendous Bowl this Sunday in New Orleans, the talk is over. Mahomes would grow to be the best playoff quarterback of all time. Tom Brady followers may not need to admit it, however they wouldn’t must. A mountain of proof factors to Mahomes taking the mantle from him.

Earlier than diving into the talk, let’s clear one factor up: With all due respect to the opposite quarterbacks with 4 Tremendous Bowl rings (Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw), it is a two-horse race. Mahomes has already gained extra playoff video games than Montana (17-16), and Bradshaw’s statistical profile pales as compared with Brady’s and Mahomes’.

So it’s actually down to 2. And as you’re about to see, it’s really down to 1. Mahomes is in place to grow to be the clear playoff GOAT.

Admittedly, it’s stunning how little time it’s going to have taken for the torch to be handed. Simply two years after Brady introduced his retirement, Mahomes is poised to do one thing Brady — or some other QB — by no means did: win a 3rd consecutive Tremendous Bowl. Simply by attending to this stage, he’s already achieved one thing Brady by no means did. No quarterback who had gained back-to-back titles had ever even returned to the Tremendous Bowl of their quest for a three-peat. Till Mahomes. If he wins Sunday, he’ll be a four-time champion earlier than he turns 30 — as soon as once more, one thing no different quarterback has ever accomplished.

As you’ll see, the one argument in favor of Brady being the higher all-time playoff QB than Mahomes is longevity. Should you argue Brady remains to be the playoff GOAT as a result of he gained extra rings (7-4 if Mahomes wins Sunday) in his 21 seasons as a wholesome starter, that’s your prerogative. However simply bear in mind, Brady gained 33 % of the Tremendous Bowls he was eligible to win; if Mahomes wins Sunday, he’ll be at 57 % (4-of-7 as a starter). By the point Brady gained his fourth title (at age 37), he was at 30 %.

By the point you’re completed studying this story, you’ll perceive {that a} four-time Tremendous Bowl champion Mahomes wins the argument in three of the first classes you’d use to settle this debate. Mahomes can have the upper peak (three-peat); his efficiency within the clutch far supersedes Brady’s; and he has simply been the superior statistical performer.

Let’s begin with that final level. Should you simply need to use stats to research Brady vs. Mahomes within the playoffs, this debate gained’t final lengthy. It’s Mahomes by a mile.

As you’ll be able to see, Mahomes has the benefit in nearly each stat that’s indicative of quarterback success or is often utilized in figuring out superiority. Brady’s solely benefit is available in sack proportion and within the locations the place longevity issues (whole wins, fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives). However Mahomes is already closing in on Brady’s game-winning drives whole, regardless of enjoying in 28 fewer video games.

From a sophisticated metric standpoint, Mahomes’ 0.23 EPA is roughly equal to what Buffalo Payments famous person Josh Allen (0.24) posted in the course of the common season. That’s to say, Mahomes performs at an MVP degree within the playoffs. Brady’s mark of 0.14 practically mirrors what Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (0.13) posted this season.

It’s additionally price stating what an asset Mahomes has been as a runner within the playoffs. Regardless of enjoying in 28 fewer video games, he’s already tallied extra speeding touchdowns and first downs than Brady — the unique king of the QB sneak — ever did. And that’s with just about no distinction in passing quantity. Mahomes averages 277.8 passing yards per recreation within the postseason, and Brady averaged 279.2.

Taken on the entire, there’s just about no statistical argument for Brady.

However Mahomes’ superiority goes past whole stats. Everyone knows Brady’s status within the playoffs was that for those who gave him the ball in a had-to-have-it scenario, he was going to make you pay. It was inevitable. Put one other approach: Earlier than Mahomes, you can have gained any GOAT QB argument in favor of Brady by merely asking: Should you may choose any quarterback to win one playoff recreation, who would it not be?

The reply was Brady. It needed to be. However not anymore. Should you may choose any QB to win one massive recreation, to guide your staff down the sphere in a have-to-have-it scenario, you choose Mahomes. He’s the brand new clutch king.

The information speaks for itself. These are their playoff numbers in one-score video games within the final 5 minutes and time beyond regulation:

The hole between Mahomes and Brady is even wider right here. Have a look at the EPA. Brady raised his play to MVP degree in these situations, however Mahomes goes to a different planet. The best EPA common season ever recorded (relationship to 2000) was posted by Peyton Manning in 2004. He delivered 0.45 EPA, in line with TruMedia. Brady’s historic 2007 season EPA was 0.41. Someway, when it issues most, Mahomes is best than the most effective ever.

Brady and the New England Patriots used to really feel inevitable, however they don’t maintain a candle to Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Now, to get forward of (at the least) one argument Brady’s defenders will attempt to use, we’ve analyzed one other set of information to show the purpose. Eras.

Some will say the early a part of Brady’s profession occurred earlier than the league turned so move heavy. That’s considerably truthful. Although it’s unattainable to evaluate what sort of numbers Brady may need posted if he had performed in a extra pass-happy league within the early a part of his profession, it’s at the least price mentioning the distinction in eras isn’t fairly as extreme as you’d assume.

NFL groups in 2024 averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns and 217.6 yards per recreation. In 2000, Brady’s first yr as a starter, groups averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns and 206.9 yards per recreation. QBs immediately full a larger proportion of passes and throw fewer interceptions, however once more, the numbers aren’t drastic.

Nonetheless, let’s attempt to even issues out a bit of. Let’s drop early-career Brady and his first three Tremendous Bowls and use solely his numbers from 2014 till his retirement, a span by which he gained 4 Tremendous Bowls.

That’s an eight-year pattern, much like the seven years Mahomes has been the starter in Kansas Metropolis, with their time overlapping for 5 seasons (2018-22). So, let’s check out how the information stacks up now. Once more, we’re taking a look at one-score playoff video games within the final 5 minutes and time beyond regulation:

Brady noticed a rise in his efficiency when dropping his 2001-13 information, but it surely’s clear his numbers nonetheless don’t stack up in opposition to Mahomes’. It’s the same story for those who transfer away from clutch conditions and take a look at their playoff numbers as a complete. Mahomes wins in nearly each vital class.

Certain, it’s truthful to counsel Mahomes’ metrics may fade as he ages. In spite of everything, few have ever held off time and aged as gracefully as Brady. Then once more, haven’t all of us realized by now that betting in opposition to Mahomes is a foul concept?

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OK, so once we stated there was just one argument (longevity) in favor of Brady, that may have been a contact unfair. It ought to at the least be talked about that Brady is 2-0 in opposition to Mahomes within the playoffs, together with a Tremendous Bowl victory.

Nevertheless, for these eager to make use of that argument for Brady, let’s bear in mind Eli Manning is 2-0 in opposition to Brady within the playoffs, together with two Tremendous Bowls, and nobody would dare counsel Manning is the superior playoff quarterback. Two video games are too small of a pattern to find out a lot, and head-to-head matchups are too circumstantial to make use of as vital proof.

The reality is, the additional you dive into this debate, the extra the proof stacks up for Mahomes over Brady. Right here’s only a small sampling of additional analysis:

• With a win in opposition to the Eagles on Sunday, Mahomes can have gained 10 straight playoff video games, which might tie Brady’s document from 2001 to 2005. The distinction, nonetheless, is Brady’s Patriots missed the playoffs fully in 2002, whereas nobody has crushed the Chiefs because the 2021 AFC Championship Sport.

• Mahomes already has the second-most wins within the playoffs when his staff trails by double-digits (5). He’s just one behind Brady, however Mahomes is 5-2 when he has discovered himself down double digits, and Brady completed 6-8.

• Mahomes’ groups have scored 595 factors in his first 20 playoff video games (29.7 factors per recreation); Brady’s groups scored 455 (23.9) in his first 20. Wish to alter for period once more? Mahomes’ 595 factors are greater than Brady’s groups scored in his final 20 playoff video games, too (568).

• Brady’s defenses solely allowed 20.8 factors per recreation within the playoffs, and Mahomes’ defenses have yielded 23.1. As soon as once more, for those who alter for period and solely rely Brady’s playoff video games from 2014 onward, Brady nonetheless obtained extra assist from his defenses. They allowed simply 21.8 factors per recreation.

I perceive those that need to stand by Brady and his seven championships. However for those who needed to choose one QB to win a Tremendous Bowl, may you actually choose in opposition to Mahomes? I couldn’t.

If his Chiefs win Sunday, the talk shall be over. Mahomes would be the biggest playoff quarterback of all time. And a part of me wonders: Isn’t that simply actually saying he’s the best quarterback of all time?

That’s an argument for an additional day.

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; images: Rob Carr and Michael Owens / Getty Pictures)