Richard Deitsch and Andrew Marchand are sports activities media writers for The Athletic. They converse each couple of weeks on sports activities media subjects. This week, they talk about the Tremendous Bowl from a media perspective, together with:
- Tom Brady’s Tremendous Bowl broadcaster debut
- Viewership potential for the sport
- The way forward for Tremendous Bowl pregame exhibits
- Netflix changing into an NFL participant
Richard Deitsch: I’m seeing Tom Brady in my sleep given how a lot this website has written about him over the previous 5 months. However right here’s the truth: We each agreed previous to the beginning of the NFL season that Brady’s debut as a Fox NFL analyst was the most important sports activities media story of the NFL season.
My thesis has at all times been that Brady’s broadcasting yr would in the end be judged by the viewing public on how he performs within the Tremendous Bowl. That’s the ultimate check, but it surely’s greater than a check: It’s the soccer public’s final engagement with Brady in his first yr on TV.
We each know that his Fox Sports activities bosses and sports activities tv executives take a look at it in another way. They are going to choose him on progress from Week 1 to Week 21. Fox believes he has improved considerably all through the season.
Nevertheless, there will likely be 115 million-plus folks watching Brady on Sunday. That is a gigantic jury. How do you see this?
Andrew Marchand: I agree, however there are a number of totally different audiences for the Tremendous Bowl:
There are the hardcore followers there each week that produce the 15 (million) to 35 million or so viewers for video games every week. The extra informal followers that start watching within the playoffs push the numbers into the 40 (million) and 50 million vary. Then comes Tremendous Bowl viewers.
The deciders are that first group, as they care way more in regards to the broadcast. The opposite two teams might have some opinions, however in the end will probably simply be impressed that Brady is on the decision.
If he does wonderful or has an terrible efficiency, then all three units will chime in. He’s approach higher than Week 1, however he’s not John Madden simply but.
If he has a “16-for-24, two touchdowns and one interception” efficiency, I feel Fox would take it. They’d love “400 yards and 5 touchdowns,” however I don’t suppose they are going to be grasping.
AM: What number of eyes do you suppose will likely be watching this recreation?
RD: The present viewership file got here final yr when an viewers of 123.4 million viewers watched the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in time beyond regulation. That topped the earlier file of 115.1 million viewers for the Kansas Metropolis-Philadelphia Eagles matchup two years in the past.
Look, there is no such thing as a Chiefs fatigue; the information doesn’t lie. The AFC Championship Sport averaged 57.7 million viewers, the most-watched AFC title recreation in historical past. If this recreation is tight late — and I feel it will likely be — I feel we see a brand new file. Put me down for 124 million. You?
AM: This can be a unhealthy omen for Fox — we agree! I’m going 124.5 million viewers and a file.
You might be on level on the truth that Chiefs fatigue is overrated. Viewers just like the big-name groups, and Kansas Metropolis goes for historical past (three Tremendous Bowl championships in a row) with perhaps the best quarterback ever.
There could also be some hate watching, however the individuals who have such sturdy emotions are watching it doesn’t matter what. The information come on the edges, and I feel Fox and the NFL choose that up.
AM: How in regards to the pregame present? You into it? Or a giant waste of time?
It might be the final Tremendous Bowl pregame present for Jimmy Johnson and Terry Bradshaw. After two of the final three Tremendous Bowls due to the brand new TV contracts with the NFL, Fox received’t have the large recreation for 4 years as it’s NBC (2026), ABC/ESPN (2027), CBS (2028) after which Fox in 2029.
RD: So right here is the attention-grabbing factor with NFL pregame exhibits: They proceed to attract extra viewers than you would possibly suppose.
As an illustration, “Fox NFL Sunday” averaged 4.42 million viewers this season. You may make numerous promoting cash off these numbers. I imply, if “First Take” averaged 600,000 viewers over a yr they’d maintain a Rose Bowl parade in Bristol, Conn.
I discover the pregame exhibits more and more much less related nowadays with youthful viewers. We additionally don’t usually see them pop on social media, the coin of the realm for younger folks.
Fox Sports activities clearly will likely be bringing in youthful staffers quickly, however the NFL pregame present usually looks like a relic of a unique time. I’ll watch as a result of we receives a commission to look at, however I discover it much less attention-grabbing yearly.
RD: One of many issues I get requested about from numerous readers is whether or not a Tremendous Bowl will ever go behind a paywall the place a Netflix buys it.
I don’t suppose this occurs in our lifetime. Now, when you requested me whether or not I can see a Netflix or Amazon have the divisional playoffs within the subsequent 20 years, I completely see it. What about you?
AM: I’m extra bullish on this lifetime, however I’d prefer to understand how lengthy which means. Amazon and Netflix are considering huge, international.
The NFL can have Roger Goodell do songs and dances in regards to the followers this and the followers that, but when the digital gamers provide far more cash, I might see Amazon or Netflix having a Tremendous Bowl perhaps when the NFL opts out of its present TV offers. I don’t suppose that may be a wild thought in 4 or 5 years when these opt-outs occur.
If broadcast TV will get considerably weakened over time, I feel the concept of a subscription-based Tremendous Bowl turns into extra probably. It actually depends upon the place The Nice Rebundling takes place and the way sturdy the networks can proceed to be. However in a TV-by-subscription world, it’s exhausting to not guess on Netflix’s and Amazon’s long-term fashions for giant occasions if they need extra.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Sam Hodde/Getty Pictures, Mikayla Schlosser/Kansas Metropolis Chiefs by way of AP, Kara Durrette by way of AP)