How a lot is the NHS going to price us?

The sum of money the UK spends on well being, predominantly on the NHS, has been rising for many years.

And because the UK inhabitants ages and other people demand entry to new medicines and coverings, there may be each chance that the nationwide invoice will proceed to develop.

So how a lot may the NHS in the end find yourself costing the nation? And is it potential to get higher worth for the cash we collectively spend?

BBC Confirm has examined a number of the key numbers.

Shortly after the NHS was based, in 1949-50, complete UK well being spending was round £17bn in at this time’s cash.

By 2023–24 it had grown to £226bn.

Well being spending per individual in 2022-23 was round £3,300 in England and Scotland, £3,600 in Wales and £3,500 in Northern Eire.

Within the Autumn Finances final 12 months, Chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced an extra £26bn a 12 months for the English well being price range by 2025-26, which is able to routinely improve the assets out there to the devolved nations.

As a share of the general economic system – or GDP – spending on well being has massively elevated over the previous 70 years.

In 1949-50, well being spending was solely 3.6% of GDP. In 2023-24, it had greater than doubled to eight.1% of GDP, after peaking at greater than 10% within the Covid pandemic.

Well being spending jumped within the pandemic as a result of prices of vaccinations and the “check and hint” programme.

Round 80% of complete well being spending is funded by the federal government within the UK, primarily going to the NHS. The opposite 20% comes by means of non-public insurance coverage schemes or out-of-pocket prices.

Which means well being spending as a share of complete authorities spending has additionally significantly elevated.

In the course of the Nineteen Fifties, well being accounted for round £1 in each £8 the federal government spent.

Right this moment it is roughly £1 in each £3.

Regardless of that surge in well being spending in latest many years, the UK is on no account an outlier amongst wealthy international locations.

In 2022, utilizing comparable knowledge on public well being spending, the UK was spending round 9.3% of GDP.

That was increased than Canada (7.9%) and Italy (6.8%) in addition to the EU common, however lower than Germany (10.9%) and France (10.2%).

The US was the actual outlier, spending 14.1% of GDP on well being, largely as a result of America has a non-public insurance coverage system with few of the associated fee controls of different nations.

And people international locations have, just like the UK, seen well being spending rise significantly in latest many years, pushed up by rising demand for brand new medical therapies and ageing populations.

Final 12 months, the Workplace for Finances Duty (OBR), the federal government’s official forecaster, stated there was each chance there can be continued upward strain on UK public well being spending, citing those self same components: an ageing inhabitants and extra demand for brand new medicines and coverings.

It additionally cites rising sick well being among the many inhabitants as one of many contributors to rising spending, albeit not the dominant one.

The quantity of well being spending on a person rises dramatically as they get older. Common annual spending per individual on these aged 45 is round £2,000. For these aged 85 it’s £13,000 a 12 months.

The OBR initiatives that the proportion of the inhabitants aged 65 and over will rise from round one in 5 at this time to at least one in 4 by 2070.

As individuals’s incomes develop, analysis suggests they’re usually prepared to spend extra of these incomes on healthcare, which within the UK is completed primarily by means of the taxpayer-funded NHS.

In its central forecast, the OBR projected UK public healthcare spending will rise by round 3% yearly, after adjusting for inflation. This could be broadly in keeping with common progress over latest many years, though the speed has fluctuated underneath completely different governments.

The OBR estimates this pattern would add as much as roughly an additional 1% of GDP occurring public well being spending each decade going ahead.

That will take public well being spending from round 8% of GDP in 2024-25, as much as 14.5% of GDP by 2073-74, equal to round £180bn in at this time’s cash.

Nevertheless, this could additionally rely upon the long run progress charge of the economic system. The OBR assumes public well being spending will develop roughly twice as quick as the general economic system.

If that path of spending transpired, it could additionally probably imply well being spending accounting for a fair bigger share of complete authorities public service spending.

Many politicians argue it is essential for the NHS to ship increased ranges of productiveness, in different phrases, to spend cash extra effectively with a purpose to preserve the nationwide invoice underneath management.

Productiveness progress within the NHS has lengthy lagged behind productiveness progress in the remainder of the UK economic system.

Final 12 months, the OBR checked out what would occur if NHS productiveness grew quicker than at the moment anticipated within the coming many years.

This, the OBR stated, may curb the general rise in public well being spending. It would rise solely to 11% of GDP by 2074, reasonably than to 14.5%.

The latest indications of productiveness progress within the NHS, nevertheless, are unclear.

The newest estimates from the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics are that within the second half of 2024 NHS measured “inputs” – primarily within the type of extra medical doctors and nurses employed – have been 32% increased than they have been earlier than the pandemic in 2019.

However measured “outputs” – issues like operations accomplished and sufferers discharged – have been solely up by 7%.

This meant that UK public sector well being productiveness was nonetheless round 19% decrease than it was 5 years beforehand – and exhibiting no indicators of sustained progress.

Nevertheless, measuring productiveness within the public providers is way from easy and the ONS has burdened that these statistics are nonetheless solely “in growth”.

Different estimates from NHS England and the Institute for Fiscal Research – the impartial financial analysis institute – level to an enchancment in productiveness in hospitals in England extra just lately, suggesting a nook may need been turned within the supply of well being providers after the shock of the pandemic.

However whatever the statistical discrepancy, most consultants agree that enhancing productiveness within the well being sector within the medium and long run is a crucial goal. And the extent to which it’s delivered will play a key half in figuring out how a lot the NHS finally ends up costing the nation within the coming years.