By all accounts, Patrick Mahomes has not had the best season of any quarterback. Sure, he is 16-1 as a starter but many agree that win-loss records are an overused stat for QBs. That is why he is not an MVP finalist this year.
Nonetheless, he is still perceived as the league’s biggest difference-maker and best player. So why are the masses not lining up to back the Kansas City Chiefs (-2) as short home favorites?
My theory is that too many are overreacting to the few regular season games Kansas City escaped losses with a fortunate play. Yes, the special teams blocked a Denver Broncos winning field goal in Week 10. The Las Vegas Raiders botched a snap that could have led to a winning field goal in Week 13.
Personally, I would basically dismiss those, regardless if K.C. had lost the game. We routinely see elite teams suffer strange regular-season losses. That’s often why professional bettors back underdogs. The best teams do not always play up to their capabilities, especially in a lengthy regular season.
The bottom line is that the Chiefs have won and covered four straight games, having seemingly activated their “playoff mode.” I am not ready to wager against them with such a small point spread. A two-point line basically aligns with what they’re trying to achieve, which is to win the game and advance to the Super Bowl.
With all that being said, I understand the apprehension of backing them to cover this spread. The Bills handed Mahomes his only loss this season, a 30-21 Buffalo home win in Week 11.
Thus, I see solid value in backing the Bills in a teaser, which is essentially a parlay where you adjust the point spread six points on each leg. Getting the Bills +8 is the only way I am betting this game. I think they have a chance to win and I also do not envision a Chiefs blowout — because I see what many see. This is not the same high-octane Chiefs offense.
Betting on the NFL?
Mahomes is finding ways to win with various late-game heroics, so adjusting the point spread provides that much more value. Obviously moving a spread by six points in your direction provides allure but the key is finding the scenarios where it proves to be a difference-maker. I think we have that here.
Now, one must also find a second leg for the teaser to cash. The logical choice is moving the Eagles from -6 to Pick’em but one can find other options elsewhere. I happen to have wagered on Ohio State -2.5 against Notre Dame, which has already cashed, but I am not opposed to other Sunday options like the Eagles or even a basketball game.