The betting market already accounts for every piece of information. It’s nearly impossible to have a betting angle that is not already known. The only difference is how much a bettor weighs a certain nugget or storyline.
For me, the point spread outcome in Wednesday’s CFP quarterfinal/Peach Bowl will be decided by Arizona State coach Ken Dillingham, who late Tuesday night agreed to a five-year contract extension. I firmly believe the sports world will eventually label him an “offensive genius.” I’ve read two books about Bill Belichick and while it’s high praise, Dillingham reminds me of the legendary coach.
The question is whether the 34-year-old has the capabilities to deliver right now with the Sun Devils as 12.5-point underdogs to Texas.
The media has mostly focused on Dillingham’s hometown storyline. He grew up in Scottsdale and attended ASU games his entire life, given his family religiously tailgated. He then attended ASU and eventually landed his dream job to coach his beloved Sun Devils.
While that’s certainly a cool backstory, I am more impressed with his career path and commitment. The guy tore his ACL during his senior year of high school and used that as an opportunity to coach the junior varsity team.
That passion continued as an ASU student, serving as the offensive coordinator at powerhouse Chaparral High School and capturing a state championship. Instead of embracing a well-documented party scene, the college kid was dissecting video.
That enabled him to strengthen his contacts with college coaches, who eagerly pursued him for their own staffs. Upon graduation, Dillingham soon found himself in the SEC, coaching — and thriving — before serving as Oregon’s offensive coordinator.
At age 32, Dillingham took over an ASU program that finished 1-9 but now has it in the playoff two years later with an 11-2 record, despite a freshman quarterback. He also has a stud in running back Cam Skattebo, who finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting.
Betting on College Football?
The Sun Devils last played on Dec. 7. With over three weeks to scout Texas, Dillingham should have the antidote to the Longhorns’ stout defense. Frankly, Clemson found plenty of vulnerabilities in its first round loss, so I certainly believe in Dillingham to assemble a strong game plan.
I am taking ASU +12.5 but my favorite play is the team total Over 18.5 points. Skattebo is a different kind of animal. Add that weapon to Dillingham’s brain, and I think ASU has a potent combo the betting market has yet to accurately assess.