How many Jim Harbaughs does it take to install a light bulb? We’re going to guess one, but it might take him half a season to turn the light on.
We’re eight games into the 2024 campaign (for most teams), and the Chargers offense under Harbaugh largely has been operating in the dark. They have scored the sixth-fewest points, scored the third-fewest touchdowns, run the second-fewest plays and have the fifth-fewest passing yards on the fourth-fewest attempts.
The passing has been scarce, but the running hasn’t been great, either. They rank in the bottom half for rush attempts (20th) and rushing yards (24th), and are sixth-worst in yards per attempt.
Yet they sit at 4-3 in the thick of the playoff race, and have what many consider to be a quarterback with top-tier potential in Justin Herbert.
So what is the holdup? Why have the prospects been so dim? Well, because they operate slowly, methodically and often times inefficiently — particularly on the ground.
Though their rushing numbers are unimpressive, most of their passing stats can be pinned on the pace, thus the lack of opportunity. But when the Chargers do throw, they aren’t terrible. They rank 17th in yards per attempt. Better, Justin Herbert has an 8-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio, second-best behind Josh Allen (14-1).
It isn’t otherworldly, but their middle-of-the-pack (or better) passing efficiency numbers hint at more potential than their bottom-tier output reflects thus far.
Part of that can be pinned on play-calling and pace. And part could be a lack of reliable receiving options — a deficiency that could also influence the play-calling and pace.
But what if that inadequacy were squashed? What if they found a reliable target in the passing game? And what if that coincided with a light bulb going off in Harbaugh’s head, giving him the enlighted thought: Wait, I have Justin Herbert as my quarterback?
Handing Harbaugh that light bulb idea is rookie receiver Ladd McConkey.
The Georgia WR, drafted in the second round in April, had a modest start to his career. Over his first six games, he totaled 24 receptions and 265 yards on 39 targets with two touchdowns — an average of 10.4 fantasy points per game in PPR formats.
That is not great, WR45 heading into Week 8. Then he erupted for 111 yards on six catches with two touchdowns. Now he is WR22.
Yeah, yeah. We hear you skeptics chanting a common Madman refrain: That is just one week. There is broader data that suggests that game could be an anomaly. And that is true, but also …
More Ladd makes sense. Less Ladd doesn’t. That is why that game should have been a light bulb moment for the Chargers. Because, as much as we’re rooting for running back J.K. Dobbins, Herbert is their best player, so more Herbert makes sense. Less Herbert doesn’t.
Once you make this less than Earth-shattering revelation, take a look at the upcoming Chargers schedule. It includes average, or worse, fantasy WR defenses in the Titans, Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Buccaneers and Lions, with a tough Week 14 clash with the Chiefs mixed in. And the soft run starts this week against the Browns — in what could turn into a shoot-out with Jameis Winston now directing the Cleveland offense.
Harbaugh is a coach who has had success at multiple stops at multiple levels. We know coaches can be stubborn and set in their ways, but those who are perpetually successful don’t turn out the light on good ideas.
More Ladd is a good idea. And we think Harbaugh is going to keep that light on.
Big weeks
Joe Flacco QB, Colts, at Vikings (FanDuel $7,000/DraftKings $5,700)
He has fared fairly well standing in for Anthony Richardson previously this season, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. But two of those were versus good defenses (Steelers, Titans). He scored 26.6 against the Jaguars, and could hang something similar on Minnesota.
Cade Otton TE, Buccaneers, at Chiefs (FD $6,100/DK $4,500)
So we don’t have to mention this again: We are planning to start Otton regularly at least until Mike Evans returns. And this week he faces the league’s worst defense vs. fantasy tight ends.
Sam LaPorta TE, Lions, at Packers (FD $6,300/DK $4,800)
That he had a season-high in targets, receptions and fantasy points last week is no coincidence, since Jameson Williams was suspended. Williams is out again this week. Enjoy some circa 2023 LaPorta while you can.
Mike Gesicki TE, Bengals, vs. Raiders (FD $5,400/DK $3,100)
WR Tee Higgins on Friday was downgraded to doubtful for Sunday. When Higgins is down, Gesicki feasts.
Small weaks
Geno Smith QB, Seahawks, vs. Rams (FD $7,400/DK $5,800)
Top receiver DK Metcalf is out again with a knee injury. Smith struggled last week without him — 212 passing yards, zero TDs, one INT. Don’t be surprised if Smith delivers another dud against the Rams.
Jayden Reed WR, Packers, vs. Lions (FD $7,300/DK $6,400)
If QB Jordan Love plays, we expect him to be limited by a groin injury. That could undermine an otherwise great opportunity for a shoot-out against one of the most generous defenses vs. fantasy WRs.
Zay Flowers WR, Ravens, vs. Broncos (FD $7,200/DK $7,000)
We’re not sure what kind of role newly acquired Diontae Johnson is going to play. Flowers has three single-digit games on his ledger this year. The Broncos are not an easy opponent. Lot of warning signs.
T.J. Hockenson TE, Vikings, vs. Colts (FD $5,600/DK $5,200)
First game back from last season’s ACL injury. We want to see him show us a little something before diving back in wholesale. You’ve waited this long, smarter to wait at least one more week.
Betting on the NFL?
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (13 games)
Type: $15 tourney
Top prize: $200K
Pot: $1.2M
Drew’s Crew
QB: Sam Darnold, Min (vs. Ind) $7,500
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Ind (at Min) $8,200
RB: Alexander Mattison, LV (at Cin) $5,900
WR: Justin Jefferson, Min (vs. Ind) $9,200
WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Ind (at Min) $5,800
WR: Ladd McConkey, LAC (at Cle) $6,400
TE: Evan Engram, Jac (at Phi) $6,400
Flex: Mike Gesicki,,Cin (vs. LV) $5,400
DEF: Saints, NO (at Car) $5,000
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Joe Flacco, Ind (at Min) $7,000
RB: Kyren Williams, LAR (at Sea) $8,900
RB: Chase Brown, Cin (vs. LV) $6,300
WR: A.J. Brown, Phi (vs. Jax) $9,000
WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Ind (at Min) $5,800
WR: Ladd McConkey, LAC (at Cle) $6,400
TE: Hunter Henry, NE (at Ten) $5,500
Flex: Aaron Jones, Min (vs. Ind) $7,500
DEF: Giants, NYG (vs. Was) $3,200
Late roster changes, check @NYPost_Loftis on X and @nypfantasymadman on Threads
Season risked: $120
Season’s winnings: Drew $180, Jarad $113.50