Daniel Noboa was nowhere to be seen. And, but, he was in every single place.
On balconies. Within the arms of assorted supporters. At the back of a truck. Cardboard cutouts of Mr. Noboa, Ecuador’s president, had been ubiquitous at an election rally in a suburb of Quito, the capital, on Wednesday, as they’re in lots of components of the nation.
They even seem in numerous outfits — a swimsuit and presidential sash, a T-shirt and denims, a tank high and gymnasium shorts.
The posters are a part of the president’s profitable communication technique forward of Sunday’s election: quick on particular coverage proposals however sturdy on mastery of social media and viral tendencies to venture a picture of youth and vigor to Ecuador’s voters, the vast majority of whom are youthful than 44.
Supporters and detractors alike have even taken to saying, “The cardboard goes to win.”
Mr. Noboa, 37, took workplace simply 15 months in the past, after his predecessor known as for early elections amid the specter of impeachment over embezzlement accusations.
In his quick time period, he has confronted a slew of nationwide and worldwide controversies, an vitality disaster, a feud along with his vice chairman, persistent drug-related violence and unemployment.
He has additionally been criticized by opponents and analysts for what they describe as strongman tendencies, together with abusing his presidential powers within the identify of combating violence and corruption.
And, but, polls present, Mr. Noboa, a center-right politician, is the main candidate in Sunday’s election, and will win sufficient votes to keep away from a runoff.
His reputation, specialists say, is buoyed by his branding as a hip and forceful chief, in addition to by his truncated time period — many citizens don’t blame him for the nation’s ills and say he wants extra time.
His fundamental opponent is Luisa González, a leftist institution candidate handpicked by a strong former president, Rafael Correa, who served from 2007 to 2017. She has drawn help from Mr. Correa’s base of voters, who’re wanting to return to the prosperity and low murder charges throughout his tenure.
But it surely additionally hurts her amongst different Ecuadoreans who bear in mind Mr. Correa’s repressive ways and corruption scandals. Many Noboa supporters put it merely: Ms. González represents the previous, whereas Mr. Noboa represents the longer term.
Mr. Noboa’s occasion, which was created lower than a 12 months in the past, is predicted to win a couple of third of the seats within the legislature — the identical as Mr. Correa’s occasion.
For years Ecuador has been outlined by Mr. Correa’s motion, however some say Mr. Noboa has the potential to create a political drive of his personal.
That is the primary time for the reason that Correa years that Ecuador has seen a comparatively well-liked president looking for re-election, and it “creates the likelihood for a kind of political stability that Ecuador hasn’t seen actually since Correa left workplace,” mentioned Risa Grais-Targow, the Latin America director for Eurasia Group, a political threat consultancy.
Ecuadorean presidential elections sometimes function two rounds of voting, with the 2 high candidates within the first spherical going through off within the second. To win the primary spherical outright, a candidate should win greater than 50 % of the votes, or win 40 % of the votes with a 10-point margin over the closest rival.
Simply 5 years in the past, Mr. Noboa was a political unknown. After one time period as a legislator, he rose unexpectedly from the underside of the polls to a second-place end within the first spherical of presidential elections in 2023, helped, partially, by a powerful debate efficiency.
Mr. Noboa, a Harvard Kennedy Faculty graduate, comes from considered one of Ecuador’s wealthiest households. His father, Álvaro Noboa, who owns an financial empire that features Bonita Bananas, additionally ran for president 5 instances, unsuccessfully.
The youthful man has been main the nation of almost 18 million by a very bloody interval.
Over the previous 5 years, the drug-trafficking trade has expanded in Ecuador, drawing in worldwide prison teams, unleashing violence within the once-peaceful nation and sending tens of 1000’s of migrants fleeing to america.
Two months after taking workplace, Mr. Noboa declared a state of inside armed battle after a number of jail riots and an on-air siege of a TV station.
The drastic step, which allowed the navy to patrol prisons and streets, was seen as a turning level. Some Ecuadoreans felt the measure was essential to crack down on gang violence, whereas others anxious it threatened civil liberties.
The transfer initially introduced down violence in cities like Guayaquil, however the sense of security didn’t final. January noticed extra violent deaths than any month up to now three years, in line with police information.
In April, Mr. Noboa dispatched law enforcement officials to the Mexican Embassy to arrest a politician who had taken refuge there to flee a jail sentence for corruption. Specialists known as the motion a violation of worldwide regulation on the sanctity of diplomatic missions, and the arrest drew world condemnation.
However in Ecuador, the strikes boosted Mr. Noboa’s picture as a tough-on-crime chief, and Ecuadoreans endorsed his hard-line strategy later that month, once they authorized a referendum enshrining the elevated navy presence into regulation and lengthening jail phrases for sure offenses linked to organized crime.
“I believe he’s authoritarian,” mentioned Cristina Guevara, 45, who cares full time for her disabled son. “However we wish him to win as a result of it’s the solely resolution that there’s going to be proper now.”
Nonetheless, Mr. Noboa’s strategy has been polarizing, and his approval rankings have been carved in half.
Many blamed his harsh technique for the disappearance in December of 4 youngsters who had been pressured right into a navy patrol automotive after they had been seen taking part in soccer within the western province of Guayas. Their charred stays had been discovered weeks later, and the case set off outrage and protests in opposition to the navy.
A decide ordered the detention of 16 navy members concerned within the disappearance.
On the subject of his plans for the nation, Mr. Noboa has supplied little in the way in which of concrete guarantees, as an alternative talking vaguely about throwing “the outdated Ecuador” within the trash.
His success has been in making a “character,” mentioned Caroline Ávila, an Ecuadorean political analyst. “This character nonetheless doesn’t inform the voter what nation he desires to offer you.”
Verónica Díaz, the nationwide coordinator of Mr. Noboa’s occasion, mentioned considered one of his high plans was to change the Structure to elevate a ban on overseas navy bases.
Mr. Correa instituted the ban in 2008, pushing out a U.S. navy presence that critics say was essential for combating worldwide prison teams.
Mr. Noboa can also be overtly feuding along with his vice chairman, Verónica Abad, a right-wing enterprise coach. Ecuadorean regulation requires presidents to cede their duties to the vice chairman whereas campaigning, however Mr. Noboa has refused to take action, citing an electoral regulation that he claimed allowed him to manipulate and marketing campaign on the identical time.
The constitutional court docket rejected that declare on Monday, so Mr. Noboa stopped formally campaigning.
Specialists say a few of Mr. Noboa’s actions are an overreach of government authority that could possibly be seen as authoritarian.
“He’s tended to push the restrict by way of each worldwide and home constitutional norms,” mentioned Ms. Grais-Targow. “But it surely’s at all times been executed with the banner of safety measures or transparency, which I believe has helped to include the political fallout for him.”
His supporters see him as a fearless chief prepared to make daring choices for the sake of the nation.
However Ledy Zúñiga, a former justice minister who’s working for the Nationwide Meeting with Ms. González’s occasion, mentioned weakening the nation’s democratic norms solely makes it tougher to deal with the nation’s violence.
“So long as the institutional framework of the safety system is just not strengthened, it is vitally tough,” she mentioned.
Mr. Noboa can also be one of many few leaders in Latin America who appear to be on good phrases with President Trump. He attended his inauguration and has accepted deportation flights.
Mr. Noboa’s choice to not actively marketing campaign, following the court docket’s ruling, makes for an uncommon scene on the path.
On Wednesday, the plaza in suburban Quito was full of 1000’s of individuals ready to listen to him communicate. Due to the court docket’s choice, he by no means did.
So he ate lunch in a meals market whereas chatting with native distributors. Spectators shortly surrounded him, standing on chairs, snapping selfies and chanting marketing campaign slogans.
“It was thrilling as a result of no president has ever come to this market earlier than,” mentioned Soledad Medina, 60, who offered the president juice. “He’s very younger and he’s clever and would love our Ecuador to vary. What we want is a change.”
José María León Cabrera contributed reporting.