So far this winter, the free-agent market has moved in waves.
There were a handful of early signings, as was the case with Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi and Travis d’Arnaud, before the market picked up steam heading into the Winter Meetings, with Willy Adames, Luis Severino, Clay Holmes, Tyler O’Neill, Shane Bieber and Blake Trienen coming off the board. This flurry was capped by Juan Soto’s mega-deal the night before the meetings started.
The Winter Meetings themselves — and the days immediately after — were most notable for a handful of trades (Garrett Crochet, Kyle Tucker, Devin Williams) as notable free agents trickled — but didn’t pour — off the board (Max Fried, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb). The free-agent market seemed to otherwise stall into mid-December.
Things picked up again in the days before and after the Christmas holiday. In the days before, a bunch of free-agent first basemen (Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Walker, Carlos Santana) and a few other notables (Walker Buehler, Max Kepler, Joc Pederson) signed with new teams, and in the days after, the market’s top free-agent starting pitcher (Corbin Burnes), second baseman (Gleyber Torres) and arguably the top non-Soto corner outfielder (Teoscar Hernández) finally signed.
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So, we’ve now entered the new year with the top of the free-agent market picked apart but certainly not bare. Five of our Big Board’s top 10 free agents remain available. Most of the top relievers are still out there, though the options in the middle of the field — where the market was never deep to begin with — are now exceptionally few and far between. To get a sense of the remaining market, we’ve put together our second All-Free-Agent team of the offseason. For comparison, here’s our team from the start of the offseason. And here’s where things stand today:
Lineup
1. Ha-Seong Kim SS
2. Alex Bregman 3B
3. Pete Alonso 1B
4. Anthony Santander RF
5. Justin Turner DH
6. Jurickson Profar LF
7. Jorge Polanco 2B
8. Harrison Bader CF
9. Elias Diaz C
Best available
Four players remain from our start-of-the-offseason free agent lineup: Bregman, Alonso, Santander and Bader (though Bader is not on our top 40 list). Bregman and Alonso have been the best available corner infielders from the beginning, and both are still out there. Third base has never been especially deep (Yoán Moncada might be the best non-Bregman third baseman left), but first base used to have a lot of fallback options before that market was raided in recent weeks. The second-best first baseman left on the market is 40-year-old Turner or a dice roll on Anthony Rizzo returning to form at 35.
Bats for hire
This market opened with 22 free agents who had at least 350 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 100 or better last season (basically, league-average-or-better hitters). Only nine such free agents remain: Profar, Santander, Alonso, Jesse Winker, Bregman, Turner, J.D. Martinez, Mark Canha and Kim (listed in order of wRC+). That’s not a lot of readily available offensive impact, especially after the first-base market was picked apart leading into the holiday break.
Thin up the middle
Kim and Bregman are the best remaining shortstop and third baseman, but they’re also the best remaining second basemen if teams want to play them at that position. Beyond those two, Korean standout Hyesong Kim signed with the Dodgers late last week, taking an intriguing candidate off the board. So, who to play second base on our fictional roster? We went with Polanco, who’s admittedly a bad defender coming off a down year at the plate. But who else? Jose Iglesias? Brendan Rodgers? Paul DeJong? There are flaws with every remaining possibility. The center field market, meanwhile, has always been all-glove (Bader, Kiké Hernández, Michael A. Taylor).
Paul DeJong could be a solid pick-up for a team looking for utility. (Jack Gorman / Getty Images)
Bench
- James McCann C
- Paul DeJong INF
- Alex Verdugo OF
- Randal Grichuk OF
Run on catchers
This market never had a can’t-miss everyday catcher, but it did have a handful of useful known commodities behind the plate. That’s not really the case anymore. Already, d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sánchez, and Jacob Stallings have signed, leaving Diaz, McCann and maybe Omar Narváez as the best catchers available. That could open some trade possibilities — Tom Murphy of the Giants? Christian Vázquez of the Twins? — for teams that still need a backstop.
Utility options
A couple of utility types signed early (Kyle Farmer, Kevin Newman) leaving the market for backup infielders somewhat need-specific. DeJong stands out as a guy coming off a solid season and could probably fill in at shortstop semi-regularly. Jose Iglesias, Kiké Hernández or Brendan Rodgers could likely back up at short while playing a decent amount of second base, while Polanco could be a candidate for an offensive bounce back at second or third. Donovan Solano had a 112 OPS+ last year and can still play the infield corners. Luis Urías and Nick Madrigal are still just 27. Tim Anderson and Whit Merrifield are recent All-Stars, but clearly in decline.
Outfield balance
Our bench includes a left-handed (Verdugo) and right-handed (Grichuk) outfielder. Santander and Profar are each switch hitters, but the rest of the outfield market is probably best viewed as platoon options. Verdugo, Jesse Winker, and Jason Heyward are still out there from the left side. Grichuk, Austin Hayes and Tommy Pham are available from the right side (as is Mark Canha, though he played more first base than outfield last year).
Rotation
- Roki Sasaki
- Jack Flaherty
- Nick Pivetta
- Andrew Heaney
- José Quintana
Unicorn on the market
When we completed this exercise in early November, we intentionally left out Sasaki, who had not yet been posted and presented a unique case as a younger starter without any big-league time. But, with most of the top names off the board, and Sasaki might be as dependable — with as much immediate upside — as any free-agent starter.
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Thinning the herd
If we’d done this a few weeks ago, our rotation would have included Burnes, Sean Manaea and Buehler, but all three signed in the days surrounding the Christmas holiday. The only free-agent starters remaining from our Big Board are the five listed above, plus 40-year-old Max Scherzer. Pivetta, Bregman, Alonso and Santander are the only remaining free agents attached to a Qualifying Offer.
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Who else
Looking to take a flyer beyond our Big Board? The pitcher closest to making the cut was Justin Verlander, who turns 42 in February. There’s considerable age risk with him and Scherzer (though you could say the same for 41-year-old Charlie Morton, who got a $15-million deal with the Orioles). Among the others to consider for back-end depth/stability: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Colin Rea, and Cal Quantrill.
Bullpen
- Tanner Scott
- Jeff Hoffman
- Carlos Estévez
- Kirby Yates
- Kenley Jansen
- David Robertson
- Kyle Finnegan
- Paul Sewald
Waiting for action
Only two relievers have signed off our Big Board, and one of those (Clay Holmes) was signed to be a starter. The other (Blake Treinen) returned to the Dodgers, the team he’s pitched for since 2020. Otherwise, the biggest free-agent relievers deals have been Aroldis Chapman to the Red Sox, Jordan Romano to the Phillies, and Yimi García returning to the Blue Jays. Not a ton of movement in an area that almost always sees turnover.
Still a lot of closers
The closer role doesn’t mean what it used to, but teams still value experience in the ninth inning. Jansen wasn’t his old self last year, but he still saved 27 games and finished 11th among relievers in Win Probability Added. Yates, Scott, Robertson, Hoffman and Estévez were also top 20 in that metric. All of these guys — except Hoffman — have been closers in the past, but they’ve generally created value beyond their saves.
Left-right balance
The days of left-handed specialists have mostly ended, but teams still look for some balance in their bullpens. Chapman was probably the most notable lefty on the market, but Hoby Milner signed with the Rangers, leaving Danny Coulombe, Colin Poche, A.J. Minter and Jalen Beeks are notable lefties still out there. Phil Maton, Tommy Kahnle and Kendal Graveman — who missed all of last year with an injury — are among the proven right-handers who have not typically been used as closers in their careers.
(Top photo of Alex Bregman: Nick Cammett / Diamond Images via Getty Images)