NEW ORLEANS — The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles in Tremendous Bowl LIX, though most agree the underdogs have the higher roster general.
Quarterbacks matter significantly, after all, and Patrick Mahomes’ presence on the Chiefs is the nice equalizer.
How do NFL coaches see the matchup? I collected insights and picks from 5 of them because the week wound down and kickoff approached.
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What the Eagles are doing higher now than they’ve finished up to now few years is play complementary soccer. They know operating the ball is their power. This yr, they dedicated to it. The quarterback (Jalen Hurts) is what he’s. He understands his limitations.
Kansas Metropolis can be tremendous and rating 25-30 factors if they’ll keep on schedule on offense. I don’t assume that’s arduous to do towards that Philly protection proper now. The Rams had been in a position to transfer the ball once they had been in a position to play in rhythm, staying forward of the chains. There may be going to be beneath area for Mahomes to function. Then it’s going to be about scoring touchdowns within the crimson zone.
Vic Fangio can’t let this man (Mahomes) keep on the sector. He’ll get pissed off in some unspecified time in the future, and that’s the way you beat him. He may begin taking part in Cowl 1. He might want to discover a solution. Kansas Metropolis could have alternatives to drive the ball, and if you’re inside one possession within the fourth quarter, you’re feeling actually good as a result of Hurts is just not profitable the sport within the two-minute drill.
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Defensive coach No. 1: What Mahomes should do
Mahomes should get the ball out of his arms, with out scrambling round an excessive amount of. If he can not try this, then it is going to be a protracted day for Kansas Metropolis.
However I feel Mahomes can get the ball out of his arms shortly. Kansas Metropolis is constructed to try this. Isiah Pacheco is a bodily runner. They’ll discover spots to run the ball, and I feel they’ve received sufficient stuff of their scheme the place they’ll get the ball out to Travis (Kelce) on a 5-yard stick route.
Kansas Metropolis matches up properly. Spags (Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo) goes to have a plan for (the Eagles’) run recreation, and I don’t assume Hurts goes to have the ability to do a lot within the go recreation. Spags will use some 5-1 constructions, some 6-1 constructions. That’s one of the simplest ways to go about it towards Saquon Barkley.
Offensive coach: Eagles are the higher group
I just like the Eagles. I feel they’re the higher group. Their go rush can be a giant issue. They received’t be slipping and sliding like they had been in Arizona (on the Tremendous Bowl two years in the past).
However as a lot as you credit score Kansas Metropolis for profitable all these shut video games, Buffalo didn’t do itself any favors (within the convention championship). Take the fourth-and-5 play late within the recreation. In the event you tighten your cut up like Buffalo did, Spags brings the nook blitz. The receiver (Khalil Shakir) swung left and nobody lined him. If Josh (Allen) doesn’t panic and run to the precise, the receiver is operating for the primary down. Kansas Metropolis leaves guys uncovered. After which on protection, for Buffalo to surrender that late third-down conversion on essentially the most fundamental gotta-have-it third-down play in soccer is simply powerful. I don’t assume Philly would let that occur.
Philly will maintain the ball away from Mahomes. The quarterback (Hurts) will run. That’s arduous on the blitz stuff Spags desires to run. Now, in case you undergo the matchups, out of the blue you want Andy Reid over Nick Sirianni. You want Mahomes over Hurts. You want Spagnuolo dialing up the precise name in a giant spot. You may speak your self into the Chiefs actually quick.
Offensive coordinator: It’s a 50-50 recreation, which suggests …
It’s a complete 50-50 recreation. Each defenses are good. Each offenses are good. This is among the most evenly arrange Tremendous Bowls. What’s not evenly arrange is one quarterback is unquestionably higher than the opposite, and when it issues, it issues.
Philly’s solely probability is that if they’ll create sufficient (havoc) with 93 (Milton Williams) inside to push the pocket on Mahomes, and if Saquon can break off a few of these huge runs, which I don’t assume he’ll have the ability to do almost as a lot, as a result of Spagnuolo will combine it up sufficient.
Philly can actually win as a result of they’ll hand the ball off and play keep-away sufficient, they usually nonetheless have actually good talent gamers outdoors. However the blitzes versus the safety goes to be noticeable. They’ll get to that quarterback (Hurts) and rattle him. The query is, can they get Philly in passing conditions? I have no idea that they’ll have the ability to try this constantly.
Pretty much as good because the Eagles are up entrance on offense, it’s arduous to dam 95 (Chris Jones).
It’s 50-50. I’m saying it’s Kansas Metropolis by a subject aim on the most. They don’t seem to be higher on paper, however they’ll play higher usually sufficient. Within the second, when it issues, third down and fourth down, Spags goes to have a blitz that will get house.
Philly received’t come after Mahomes sufficient. In the event you come after him with simply 4, he can transfer sufficient to purchase time and throw the deep over route late and all types of stuff. So, I feel Kansas Metropolis wins.
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Defensive coach No. 2: When Jalen Hurts is greatest
This one is totally different from the final time for Philly, and it truly is for the apparent cause: that again (Barkley).
Hurts is greatest once you load the field and he is aware of what he has received. When he is aware of it’s single-high, a few of his deep-ball releases and the best way he throws may be very correct. A.J. Brown can catch it off your cornerback’s head, after which DeVonta (Smith) is lightning fast. You don’t even understand it ’til you might be on the sector and see him in particular person. That dude is quick.
The truth that Spags performs two-deep safeties with press corners, it takes you a short time to determine the place to throw the ball. There are only a few instances the place you simply go, ‘Oh, I can throw the ball right here.’ If Spags goes to play in these shell seems to be, Philly has to maintain handing the ball off, after which it is going to be a matter of if Spags has sufficient changeups, if he blitzes the precise route to get Barkley on the bottom. Kansas Metropolis has given up some dashing yards on the bottom just lately.
This might be a very brief recreation as a result of each groups can maintain the ball on offense. They’re each going to maneuver it. They’re each actually good at changing third and fourth down. It’s going to be a matter of who can end. Philly is absolutely good within the crimson zone defensively in vital moments.
It’s simply arduous to choose towards the Chiefs. They know methods to end they usually’ve gotten some calls. Backside line, I’d prefer to see Philly win, however I feel Kansas Metropolis will get it finished.
Last ideas
I’ve picked towards Kansas Metropolis twice this season (each Buffalo video games) and may make a great case for Philadelphia right here, however I’ll journey with the Chiefs’ situational superiority. All of their key items — Andy Reid, Mahomes, Kelce, Chris Jones and Spagnuolo — appear to have the precise solutions on the key instances. The Eagles’ crimson zone protection is powerful and might be Philly’s key to profitable as an underdog. Chiefs 24, Eagles 20.
(Photographs of Patrick Mahomes, left, and Jalen Hurts: Todd Rosenberg, Sarah Stier / Getty Photos)