NFL Week 16 roundtable: Should Chiefs fans worry about Mahomes? Steelers or Ravens for AFC North?

There are three weeks still to play in the NFL regular season, and the Week 16 schedule includes more key contests — including two Saturday.

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans in the first game Saturday, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes on track to play. Mahomes exited last Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Browns in the fourth quarter with a high ankle sprain but was listed as a full participant in practices ahead of this week’s meeting with Houston. Kansas City entered the week still leading the AFC with the NFL’s best record at 13-1.

The Baltimore Ravens then host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Saturday’s second game in a pivotal AFC North matchup. Will the Steelers secure the division title and a season sweep of Baltimore with a win, or will the Ravens clinch a postseason trip with a victory?

Our writers Zak Keefer, Jeff Howe and Mike Sando preview Saturday’s games and more in this week’s roundtable.

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Patrick Mahomes suffered a right ankle sprain in Sunday’s win. How concerned should Chiefs fans be about him attempting to play Saturday against the Texans and again four days later against the Steelers on Christmas Day? Is there any logical argument to rest him on Saturday?

Keefer: He’s done this before. Mahomes won a Super Bowl on a gimpy ankle. So he knows the process: the rehab, his pain tolerance, how it impacts him in the pocket. If he can play, Mahomes should play. (As a former Colts beat writer, I can promise Chiefs fans they don’t want to see what the Carson Wentz experiment looks like.) The real concern for Chiefs fans right now, strange as it sounds, is this mediocre offense, specifically the offensive line. The tackle spots have buried this unit this season, and I’m not sure they get it right in time for the playoffs. If not, any shot at a three-peat goes away. The last time Kansas City didn’t have those spots right was Super Bowl LV. They lost that game by 22.

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Howe: Because Mahomes played through a high ankle sprain a couple of postseasons ago, I’m not overly concerned about his ability to do it again. The bigger concern is the Chiefs haven’t given him much room for error in a season that’s been full of white-knuckled thrill rides, with the only constant being Mahomes’ ability to deliver in the clutch. The schedule is working against them here, too. If it were the Steelers on Saturday, it might be an easy decision to sit Mahomes to keep him as far away as possible from T.J. Watt. I’d play Mahomes, assuming it’s not reckless. If they beat the Texans, I’d actually consider sitting him in Pittsburgh before trying to lock up the No. 1 seed against the Broncos.

Sando: We need to see how Mahomes functions against the Texans (and what additional damage he incurs) before setting our concern levels for the next game. Mahomes was not on the injury report late in the week. He could have returned to the Cleveland game, if necessary. That makes him healthier than other players who will gut it out in a given week. Bigger picture, I’m worried about his ability to hold up through the playoffs based on the Chiefs’ ability to protect him and his reliance on scrambling to sustain drives.

Speaking of the Steelers, they have an important AFC North game against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday that will impact playoff seeding. Who do you like in this game and why?

Keefer: I’m going with the Ravens in this one. Frankly, I think Baltimore is the AFC’s forgotten team at this point. While most of the talk has centered around Mahomes’ ankle, Josh Allen’s MVP-worthy season and the Steelers’ revival with Russell Wilson, the Ravens have been characteristically consistent, piling up a 9-5 record that includes prime-time wins over the Bills and Chargers. Only Allen’s otherworldly performances are overshadowing Lamar Jackson’s superb season — through 15 weeks, his passer rating (120.7) is the second best of any quarterback over the last 25 seasons (Peyton Manning, 123.9 in 2004). The Ravens are also second in explosive play percentage over the last five weeks. It’s tough to beat them once — which the Steelers did back in November. Bet on Baltimore winning this one at home.

Howe: I’ll take the Ravens. While the Steelers have been more consistent and won the first matchup, I still think the Ravens have a higher ceiling and will be playing with more urgency to try to catch their division rivals. But like it usually goes with these teams, I’d expect it to be close, and I’d expect it to be a tough day for Jackson. The Steelers (5-2), Chiefs (4-1) and Raiders (2-1) are the only teams with winning records against the two-time MVP. Against all opponents, Jackson’s completion percentage (57.0) ranks second to last against the Steelers, his yards per game (153.9) are eighth worst, his passer rating (66.7) ranks last and his 44.0 rushing yards per game is his fourth lowest average. He’s never rushed for a TD against them, either.

Sando: I’d take the Steelers if George Pickens were healthy and playing, but Pittsburgh might be too limited offensively without him, so I’ll lean toward the Ravens. The Steelers still have a decent shot based on their solid history defending Jackson in combination with Baltimore’s weaker-than-usual defense/kicking. This game might be pivotal not only in the division, but also for Jackson’s MVP candidacy.

The Atlanta Falcons benched Kirk Cousins after five straight games of underwhelming quarterback play, and rookie Michael Penix Jr. will make his starting debut Sunday against the New York Giants. Atlanta (7-7) is just one game behind the Bucs (8-6) in the NFC South race. Is gambling on a rookie quarterback to get them to the postseason the right move?

Keefer: This is all kinds of risky, throwing a rookie into the fire with a playoff spot on the line. But I applaud Falcons coach Raheem Morris for making the switch because it’s a gamble this team had to make. Coaches can’t coach with contracts weighing on their minds. Not even $180 million contracts. They have to put the team first, otherwise the locker room will sniff it out. And Cousins’ play over the last month — one touchdown, nine interceptions — has cost Atlanta dearly. It’s that simple. Penix might be starting his first NFL game, but he came into the league as a very experienced college quarterback. Time to see if he can be a spark.

Howe: I love the move. The Falcons’ ceiling was severely limited with Cousins playing this way, playoff race or not. It made sense to give him one more shot against the Raiders, who have a frisky but gettable defense, and Cousins couldn’t deliver much in the way of results. Penix has been lighting it up in practice, so this move didn’t come out of nowhere. It comes down to this: Is it more valuable to try to leapfrog the Bucs for a playoff spot — something that’s not in the Falcons’ control — to get into a wild-card game where the Falcons would be underdogs, or to get an extended look at their first-round pick before determining whether they should trade Cousins in the offseason? I think the Falcons made the right decision, and it helps that Penix will play against three defenses (Giants, Commanders, Panthers) that are vulnerable.

Sando: Leaving Cousins in the lineup might have been a bigger gamble based on how he was playing. This Falcons team is not a championship contender with either quarterback in the lineup. I’d rather evaluate Penix and see if he can spark the offense than keep holding out hope for Cousins when he isn’t the future anyway.

The San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins meet Sunday with their playoff hopes all but dead and their coaches, Kyle Shanahan and his former offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, under scrutiny. How much blame do Shanahan and McDaniel deserve, and which team is better suited to bounce back in 2025 and beyond?

Keefer: Shanahan deserves more of the blame for the 49ers’ backslide, but I don’t think it’s all that surprising. This team is old, and the lengthy playoff runs of the past few seasons — 11 postseason games since 2019, including two gutting Super Bowl losses — seem to have taken their toll. The injuries and absences have been an issue from the start of training camp. The Dolphins’ season boils down to Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion early on. The Dolphins tried to climb back from 2-6 and nearly did, but the hole they dug was too deep. I think Miami’s a playoff team in 2025 if Tua stays healthy.

Howe: The Shanahan discussion doesn’t make much sense to me. If the 49ers made the drastic decision to split with him, he’d have a few head coaching offers before the Niners turned off his keycard. They’re injured and short on depth, and this is what happens to teams when they’re injured and short on depth. McDaniel is a good coach with a terrific offensive scheme, but it’s perfectly fair to be critical of him for failing to correct the same issues that have plagued them since his arrival. They don’t beat good teams. They don’t play well in the cold. And even though Tagovailoa puts up big numbers more often than not, he’s too inconsistent when his early reads aren’t there and he needs to improvise. Some of these issues are organizational, too. McDaniel should get another shot in 2025. But if they don’t get closer to winning a playoff game, it might be worth reassessing.

Sando: The Dolphins’ backup quarterback plan and inability to function without Tagovailoa was the most alarming aspect of these teams’ seasons. The 49ers are in a better position to bounce back in 2025, but that is a somewhat tenuous bet simply because it’s not clear whether Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel Sr. and other key 49ers can sustain peak performance over a full season.

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Which surging NFC division leader is more dangerous in January: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Los Angeles Rams? And which is more vulnerable on the road in potential Week 16 trap games against the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets, respectively?

Keefer: Tampa Bay, because that offense can score on anyone. Liam Cohen’s flying under the radar a bit as a head coaching candidate this cycle, but the Bucs’ offensive coordinator has been outstanding this season and should get some interviews. His unit is averaging 31 points a game during its current four-game win streak, and since Week 11, Tampa’s offense ranks third in explosive play rate (14.3 percent). Todd Bowles has his defense humming, too: The Bucs’ pressure rate is No. 1 in the league over the last five weeks. The Cowboys probably have a better chance at the upset, though, because they’re far from the dumpster fire that is the Jets.

Howe: I think the Bucs have a higher playoff ceiling because of the way Coen and Baker Mayfield have the offense humming, and they’ve already beaten the Lions and Eagles. The Bucs defense has been vulnerable, though, and Mayfield can be streaky with interceptions. The Rams are hot and their defense has been better than earlier in the season. Matthew Stafford is playing at a very high level, too. I’d say the Rams have more of a trap game because they’ve been prone to nail-biters, and Aaron Rodgers is like a box of chocolates.

Sando: Both teams have shown they can hold their own in a shootout when their top receiving target is available. The Buccaneers have done a better job blowing out lesser teams more consistently, so I might trust them a little more. But if the Rams reach the playoffs, the Sean McVay/Stafford combination could threaten in the wild-card round as well.

(Top photo: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)