Week 16’s Sunday action brought the elimination of the defending NFC champs, the debut of Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons’ starting QB and the Commanders keeping the NFC East race alive.
JAMISONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
📺 #PHIvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/k718liTMwK
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2024
The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Michael Silver share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.
The 49ers were eliminated from playoff contention before their Week 16 game kicked off. Are they right to largely stay the course — specifically, sign Brock Purdy to a top-of-the-market extension — heading into 2025?
Silver: Paying Purdy is the right call. However, there will be some serious roster reckoning in the months to come, partly because of the impact Purdy’s deal will have on the salary cap, and partly because so many of the 49ers’ core players have endured a lot of wear-and-tear in pursuit of a championship these past six seasons. Alas, the window is closing. It’s time for a new era, with a team built around Purdy, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and a few other accomplished holdovers. The 49ers will have to reboot by getting younger, faster and (at some positions) cheaper. That puts a ton of pressure on Purdy, who will have to compensate by being closer to his 2023 form (when he finished fourth in the MVP voting) than what we’ve seen this season. He has it in him, but if Purdy can’t elevate his game, the 49ers won’t stand much of a chance to get back into the Super Bowl discussion.
Nguyen: This was a nightmare season for the 49ers that was marred by injuries — they’ve gone on deep playoff runs and this looks like a tired team. I think they do have to get younger but I don’t think they need a hard reset or rebuild. They have a decision to make about Deebo Samuel — he’s not the player he once was and carries a heavy price tag. And who knows if Christian McCaffrey can go back to being a workhorse next season? The 49ers should negotiate hard with Purdy, but ultimately they’re going to have to pay him top-of-the-market money or close to it. He’s a young quarterback that has had elite production in this league, so it would be hard for him to accept a Baker Mayfield-type of deal. In my opinion, he’s a good quarterback but he’ll inevitably be overpaid. Will the 49ers be able to surround him with enough talent to keep him playing at a high level?
Jones: Purdy’s rookie contract runs through 2025, so the 49ers technically don’t have to do anything with his contract this offseason. They could devote their resources to fortifying the roster around him — the offensive and defensive lines need reinforcements, and they could use another difference-making weapon in case McCaffrey doesn’t return to full dynamic form — and drag things out with Purdy. But the truth is, Kyle Shanahan loves Purdy, and the quarterback has a great understanding of the system and how to operate within it. That’s what you want if you’re the 49ers. Eventually they should reward Purdy, but it doesn’t have to be this offseason if they believe they need to use their money to address more pressing needs in areas that will help them extend their window of contention.
After a narrow loss as heavy underdogs in Buffalo, have Jerod Mayo’s Patriots shown enough for the coach to get a second season?
Jones: Talk of the Patriots being one and done with Mayo is silly. Robert Kraft knew this wasn’t going to be a one-year fix. They went 4-13 under Bill Belichick last season, and this year’s roster — outside of Drake Maye — isn’t much better. There aren’t many players on either side of the ball who would start for other teams. So, Patriots GM Eliot Wolf has a lot of work to do. Mayo is a first-year coach with plenty of room for growth, but we haven’t seen signs that his players have given up on him. Patience and aggressiveness this offseason are in order for this team, not another reset at head coach.
Nguyen: The Patriots, with a rookie quarterback, have been competitive with playoff teams this year. The defense taking a step back is a bit of concern, with Mayo being a defensive guy, but the plan was for Mayo to be Belichick’s successor and no one expected the Patriots to be a team vying for a playoff spot this year. He should at least get one more year with an upgraded roster and Maye in his second season.
Silver: On paper Mayo should be fine, with or without Sunday’s close call. Robert and Jonathan Kraft, who anointed him as Belichick’s successor long before the move was made, were obviously excited by his potential, and they need to be real about the roster Mayo was handed in Year 1. This was not an instant rebuilding project. That said, plans can change. A week ago, Mayo seemed to throw offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt under the bus after a loss when he responded to a reporter’s question about some key playcalls inside the 5-yard line (“You said it; I didn’t”). We don’t know for sure how that played in the locker room — or in the owners’ offices. That said, giving up on Mayo this quickly would be a bad look, and in the end I believe the Krafts will choose continuity and patience over a knee-jerk decision.
Did Sunday’s performance clinch Offensive Rookie of the Year honors for Jayden Daniels?
Jones: Daniels has led the pack nearly the entire season. Yes, Bo Nix is playing well; yes, Brock Bowers is a stud; but Daniels is legit carrying the Commanders. He has been the catalyst for their franchise turnaround, on and off of the field. The comeback win over the Eagles on Sunday should eliminate any doubts about his R.O.Y. credentials. Though the Commanders’ performance certainly wasn’t pretty. Teams that turn the ball over five times and commit nearly 100 yards worth of penalties aren’t supposed to win games against one of the elite teams in their conference. Yes, losing Jalen Hurts changed things for the Eagles, but Daniels never flinched on Sunday, and with the game on the line he was as clutch as they come, marching his team downfield to give them the win and moving them even closer to ending a four-year playoff drought.
Nguyen: Nix has a couple of games left against the Bengals and Chiefs. If he plays well and the Broncos win those two games, I think he still has a chance to win. I wouldn’t say it’s over, but Daniels’ performance against the Eagles will make it much tougher to catch him. I’m not sure the Commanders win that game if Hurts doesn’t get knocked out, but Daniels was still productive (five touchdown passes and 81 yards rushing) against arguably the best defense in the league. To me, Daniels has been more impressive because so much of the offense is dependent on his ability to create. It’s also a great sign that he looks so poised in these clutch situations. But recency bias is real, so the last two games of the season will be fresh in the minds of voters.
Silver: I hate deciding these things before the season is over, but it’s tough to imagine Daniels not being the guy after leading the Commanders to that epic comeback win against the Eagles. Though Nix and Bowers have strong cases, I’ve regarded Daniels as the leading contender since September, when he made it clear that he has the “It” factor every team craves at the sport’s most important position. He’s doing more than Nix is, and his poise and playmaking ability are uncanny. After all those dark days for this franchise, the sun is shining on so many fronts (ownership, stadium, etc.). Daniels is the brightest light of all.
Any early thoughts on Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons’ starter?
Nguyen: The Falcons picked a great game to insert Penix as the starter — the Giants defense stinks. Regardless, Penix did what Kirk Cousins couldn’t — he moved around, made tough throws, and the offense opened up. Bijan Robinson really benefited from having Penix on the field; the threat of Penix on keepers opened up some running lanes from him. Penix is an older rookie and his poise and preparation were evident. His only interception was a result of tight end Kyle Pitts dropping a pass that landed in the hands of a Giants defender. Falcons fans should be encouraged so far. There is a lot of talent on this offense and Penix’s skillset looks like it could help unlock everyone.
Silver: It was a promising debut for the rookie, who was thrust into what amounted to a must-win situation in his first NFL start. Penix’s only big mistake wasn’t really his fault: Pitts, one of the more overvalued players in recent NFL memory, couldn’t handle a pass near the goal line, and the Giants capitalized with a gift interception. Could the Falcons have won this game, against a sad-sack team playing out the string, with Kirk Cousins at QB? Probably. However, Penix showed plenty of potential, setting up another must-win start against Daniels and the Commanders next Sunday night.
Juggled and picked off by the Giants at the goal line!
📺: #NYGvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/PdRfXIGHCa— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Jones: Penix was solid. He completed 18-of-27 passes for 202 yards and an interception — he was a good game manager for the Falcons against the lowly Giants. He largely made good decisions and displayed a good feel for the game. Atlanta’s coaches wisely didn’t put too much on his shoulders. They leaned on running backs Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who combined for 116 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Penix basically did everything the Falcons could have hoped for in his debut.
Do you agree with the Rams being billed as “the team no one wants to see in the NFC playoffs”?
Silver: I mean, let’s be honest: The Lions are the team no one wants to see in the NFC playoffs, but that’s kind of obvious, so I’ll go with the premise here. Yes, the Rams are hot; this is similar to what went down last season, when Sean McVay’s team won seven of its last eight regular season games and took Detroit down to the wire in the wild-card round. When Matthew Stafford is on — as he was against the Bills two Sundays ago — L.A.’s offense is scary. Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and (now) Tyler Higbee are healthy, Kyren Williams is running it effectively, and Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Jared Verse is part of an improving unit. The Rams are in great position to win the NFC West and host a first-round playoff game, possibly against the Green Bay Packers. If they stay hot — or get even hotter — they could be a problem in January.
Jones: They’re certainly one of them. This is the Rams team that McVay and general manager Les Snead thought they would have this season, but injuries derailed things early on and L.A.’s players and coaches have had to scratch and claw their way out of the hole that they fell into. Now they’re healthy on offense, their young players on defense have grown into their roles, and the Rams are playing up to their potential. Beating the Jets wasn’t exactly a statement win. But it was another example of the Rams taking care of business, and with that victory L.A. has a four-game win streak and, at 9-6, remain in control of the NFC West with just two weeks left. This momentum should carry over into the postseason, when the Rams certainly have a chance to make a run.
Nguyen: The Rams have gotten healthy at the right time and they’re playing well. When they have their offensive stars on the field, they’re as good as anyone with trick-shot Stafford behind center. Their defensive backs and run game are suspect, but if they get an early lead and force teams into a passing script they have a strong pass rush. Their 9-6 record is a result of their bad injury luck in the beginning of the season. With a healthy squad they’re more of a 12-win team — so yes, teams should be weary of seeing a team of that caliber in the playoffs.
(Top photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)