Betting against the spread in the NFL during the regular season is hard, but doing so in the playoffs is even tougher.
The NFL is the most-efficient betting market in the country, with millions being bet and with just six games available, so we’re looking at a tough spot to wager these conventional lines.
In a spot like this you should really be looking at player props for wagers, as that market is far less efficient and there are thousands of wagers to sort through.
While looking for props, don’t be afraid to target the occasional under on a high-liquid market (think a popular player’s touchdown prop).
Wild Card Saturday player props, predictions
Chargers vs. Texans players props
Joe Mixon Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-110, Fanatics); CJ Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel).
Mixon is Over this total in eight of 15 games, although two of the games he went Under were blowouts where he would never get that kind of work.
Game script here is a projected low-scoring, grind-it-out affair, precisely the setting the Texans brought Mixon to help their efforts in.
As for Stroud’s rushing yards, he has gone Over in eight of 14 games, and followers of my picks know that I love betting quarterbacks to run in games that really matter.
The Chargers allow the fourth-most yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks, and the Texans’ offensive linemen should be under siege for most of the day.
Justin Herbert Over 19.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365) | 40+ (+400, Bet365)
The Texans’ pass rush and run defense are elite, which is partially why I like JK Dobbins to go Under 61.5 total rushing yards, but that’s not all.
The Texans rated No. 31 against quarterback scrambling, according to FTN’s Aaron Schatz, with the only team in the NFL worse than them being the Giants.
Herbert has been running quite a bit late in the season, going Over this number six times in 10 games and taking at least three carries in all but one of those games.
It’ll be a sack fest in Houston, and Herbert should be prepared to be nimble Saturday.
Steelers vs. Ravens player props
Derrick Henry Over 99.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Nightmare spot for the Steelers this weekend in a game that I expect to be a blowout, much like the Texans-Ravens divisional round matchup last year.
Henry is Over 100 rushing yards in each of his last three games, getting an obscene amount of work in that time (at least 20 carries per game).
The Steelers are ranked just No. 13 in the NFL in DVOA against the run, another reason to be bullish on Baltimore.
Betting on the NFL?
Mark Andrews 2+ touchdowns (+1200, BetMGM)
The Steelers do not defend tight ends well and the Ravens are without Zay Flowers; need I say more?
Tight end Mark Andrews should be heavily involved in the offense, as Lamar Jackson looks to throw rather than run Saturday night.
The Steelers allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Jackson threw three touchdowns when these two met earlier in Baltimore in Week 16.
Pittsburgh is allowing 16 percent more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than average, the sixth-worst figure in the NFL.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.