The Super Bowl is supposed to be the pinnacle of any NFL season, but sometimes it’s an anti-climax. That’s what happens when the two marqee teams and quarterbacks meet in the league championship game — such as Sunday when Josh Allen and the Bills meet Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
This is becoming almost an annual dance for Allen and Mahomes, who matched up in the playoffs after the 2020, 2021 and 2023 seasons. The Chiefs have won all three of those games and covered the spread each time. The Over has hit in each collision, as two of the league’s top quarterbacks combined for 62, 78 and 51 points, respectively.
The story has been different in the regular season, when Allen is 4-1 both straight up and against the spread against Mahomes. That tally includes the Bills’ 30-21 victory over the Chiefs on Nov. 17 in Orchard Park. That game will be remembered as Kansas City’s only legitimate loss of the season — their only other defeat came in Week 18 when Mahomes and many of the starters were resting.
I’m purposely avoiding too deep of a dive into the stats of that Week 11 game for a few reasons: One, as I mentioned, Buffalo’s regular-season success has not carried over into the postseason vs. Kansas City. And two, Mahomes threw two interceptions in that game — on his first pass and his last. It’s not a good bet to expect him to throw two more Sunday, not when he’s been intercepted just eight times on 697 postseason throws, and has eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions against the Bills in the three playoff meetings.
I’ve suspected all season that this finally might be Allen’s year to get the Bills to the Super Bowl and win it. But now that the moment of truth has arrived, I don’t believe they’ll have enough answers player-for-player across the board.
I’ll have to side with the full force of Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, with Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo on the sideline and the stands filled with loud Chiefs fans.
Then there’s the issue of the officials. Not to say the two questionable flags on collisions with Mahomes cost the Texans a victory last week, but they certainly helped to wreck the cover at +8.5, along with three missed kicks by Ka’imi Fairbairn. Troy Aikman disgustedly and rightfully called out the second of those penalties on ABC/ESPN’s broadcast.
Will the backlash from Aikman and across the NFL landscape affect how Clete Blakeman calls this game? Will the Bills at least get a neutral shake? We’ll have to see, but according to the Chiefs fansite KCKingdom, Mahomes is 6-5 in games officiated by Blakeman, well below his career winning percentage.
Lastly, rest and wear and tear become issues in this round. The Chiefs enjoyed a bye and have played one postseason game with no travel. The Bills breezed past Denver but had a death struggle with Baltimore, which required Mark Andrews’ dropped 2-point conversion to survive.
Now they had to pack up the wagons for Kansas City and have had one fewer day to get ready, as the Chiefs played last Saturday.
For the total, the low 20s temperature won’t be too inhibiting, but I think the defenses will have a say, too. And the Chiefs have played six of their past seven games Under, with all final scores landing below this number.
The picks: Chiefs -2 and Under 48 (ESPN BET)
Chiefs, 23-20.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6) over Washington Commanders, Over 47.5
I get it. A lot of people I respect in the football handicapping industry are grabbing the points in this game with both hands and in some cases predicting an outright win for Washington.
As I go through the different layers of this selection, quite a few are pointing in the Commanders’ direction.
The teams split their two meetings in the NFC East, with the Eagles winning, 26-18, at the Linc in Week 11 and the Commanders coming back from 14-0 down to score a 36-33 victory in Week 16.
The quarterback matchup could be Washington’s biggest edge here. Jayden Daniels threw five touchdown passes against the Eagles and has followed that up with the beginning of what would be a historic run through the playoffs.
Washington had 150/1 odds to win the Super Bowl before the season. According to Evan Abrams of Action Network, just three teams with odds that high have ever made it this far — with the 1979 Buccaneers losing in the NFC Championship, the 2021 Bengals falling in the Super Bowl and the 1999 Rams going all the way.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is dealing with a knee injury. He’s on track to play, but he certainly seemed less mobile in the latter stages of the win over the Rams last week.
But there are a few main reasons I’m backing the Boids.
Betting on the NFL?
— It’s easy to fixate on the Eagles’ loss to the Commanders, yet it’s their only “L” in the past 15 games.
— It’s also fun to romanticize Daniels and the Commanders as the upstart darlings, but they were about to be cooked by the Bucs until Baker Mayfield fumbled, then they gave up 521 total yards to the Lions but feasted on five turnovers. I doubt the Eagles will be so generous.
— This is Washington’s fourth consecutive road game since Jan. 5. Philly hasn’t traveled since Dec. 22.
— Saquon Barkley. He’s the one reliable constant. He ran for 146 and then 150 yards against Washington, and already has gone for 119 and 205 in the two playoff games.
Eagles, 31-23.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Chiefs (Locks 9-11 in 2024-25)
LAST WEEK: 1-6-1 (1-2-1 sides, 0-4 Over/Unders).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.