South Korea and its markets are not unfamiliar with impeachment

A man wearing an outfit with a face mask of South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol dances outside the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea on December 4, 2024, after Yoon declared martial law. South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol on December 3 declared martial law, accusing the opposition of being “anti-state forces” and saying he was acting to protect the country from “threats” posed by the North. 

Anthony Wallace | Afp | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

French government topples after no confidence vote
France’s government has been toppled in a vote of no confidence on Wednesday. A total of 331 lawmakers from both the leftwing New Popular Front alliance and the far-right National Rally supported a no-confidence motion in the country’s lower house, far exceeding the 288 votes needed to pass the motion. This means Prime Minister Michel Barnier will be forced to tender his resignation.

Impeachment motion filed against South Korea’s president
South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol is reportedly facing an impeachment vote on Dec. 7 after the country’s parliament formally introduced a motion to impeach him over his shock announcement — and subsequent reversal — of martial law. The motion needs eight lawmakers from Yoon’s party to cross the aisle for achieving the two-thirds supermajority needed for the impeachment.

Bitcoin crosses $100,000
The price of bitcoin soared past the $100,000 benchmark for the first time ever on Thursday. The flagship cryptocurrency rose as high as $103,844.05, and was last higher about 4.5% at $103,338.4, according to Coin Metrics. The move came hours after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to nominate Paul Atkins, who’s known for his pro-crypto stance, as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

U.S. markets hit fresh records 
All three major U.S. indexes closed at record highs Wednesday, with tech shares leading the charge following strong reports from Salesforce and Marvell Technology. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.69% and closed above the 45,000 mark for the first time, at 45,014.04. The S&P 500 rose 0.61% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.3% to end at 6,086.49 and 19,735.12 respectively. Asian markets were mixed, with Hong Kong leading losses and down 1%.

[PRO] UBS and others think it’s time to short the dollar
The U.S. dollar has surged since September, but some financial institutions are suggesting investors should bet against further strength in the greenback. Investment bank UBS, for instance, has warned investors not to chase the dollar’s recent gains.

The bottom line

It was the summer of 2016. Protests were being held at Ewha Womans University, one of Seoul’s most prestigious universities and the country’s top women’s college, over the school administration’s plan to introduce a new degree program.

Their protests would set off a series of events leading to the impeachment and removal of then South Korean President Park Geun-hye in March 2017.

Eight years later, another South Korean president is on the verge of impeachment. But unlike 2016, the backlash from the South Korean public and lawmakers was swift this time.

Articles of impeachment have been introduced by opposition parties against President Yoon Seok Yeol barely 48 hours after his martial law flip-flop and subsequent reversal of martial law. 

Just hours following the announcement, South Koreans saw scenes of parliamentary staffers attempting to bar armed troops from the country’s parliament using fire extinguishers; protesters clashing with police; and even a livestreamed video of opposition party leader Lee Jae-myung climbing over a parliament fence to reach the National Assembly.

Given the political chaos, is South Korea still investible?

Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and EM equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC that even if one keeps aside the turmoil in the government, South Korea’s economy is “not that well positioned in a global economic slowdown,” and that the semiconductor and auto sectors, which are key industries in the country, are facing a potential downturn worldwide.

However, others were more upbeat. “New reports are now suggesting that Yoon will be impeached or resign fairly quickly, which might help investors further draw a line under the affair,” said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics.

Mathews also added that impeachments are not unfamiliar to South Korea – and that equities fared quite well during Park’s impeachment in 2016, despite numerous protest rallies in Seoul and other parts of the country.

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