Tremendous Bowl 59 prediction: Eagles will defeat Chiefs in a beatdown

I’ve lengthy sought a fact as fairly as a Patrick Mahomes scramble.

I’ve as an alternative frequently stumbled right into a actuality as nasty because the tush push.

For precisely 1 / 4 of a century, I’ve grasped and groveled and guessed.

For practically that whole time, I’ve gagged.

In New Orleans on Sunday it’s Tremendous Bowl LIX between the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Which means it’s time for Tremendous Bowl Prediction Column XXVI, written by the worst Tremendous Bowl predictor in America, this wrong-way hack stumbling via the final quarter-century embarrassing supporters naive sufficient to again me and richly rewarding these with sufficient frequent sense to wager in opposition to me.

I’ve written 25 Tremendous Bowl prediction columns.

I’ve been incorrect 18 instances.

That may be a 28% success charge, which implies you’ve a 72% probability of cashing a wager in opposition to me, which I recommend you do, now, instantly, as a result of historical past doesn’t lie.

Keep in mind when the Buffalo Payments misplaced 4 straight? I picked them thrice. I cherished their story. I embraced their braveness. I misplaced my thoughts

Keep in mind the New England Patriots’ six-win dynasty? I by no means picked them as soon as. Finest dynasty in historical past and never as soon as. I couldn’t. I couldn’t stand Invoice Belichick. I couldn’t abdomen Brady and Gronk. I couldn’t consider the depths of my ignorance.

A fast look at a Google search finds among the headlines that inform my sorry story.

“Tremendous Bowl 2019 prediction is a no brainer: Rams…”

“Chiefs will batter Tom Brady and Bucs in Tremendous Bowl blowout…”

“It simply feels proper to select Atlanta Falcons to win Tremendous Bowl…”

I as soon as missed on 11 consecutive picks. How do you blow 11 consecutive picks? By betting on the most effective story as an alternative of the most effective stats, that’s how. By being extra sentimental than sensible. By doing what — let’s face it — many people do when guessing the winner of the one sport a 12 months they really watch.

They wager helmets. They wager colours. They wager backstories. For all intents and functions, they wager like me.

In my first 18 Tremendous Bowl picks, I used to be proper thrice. That isn’t a misprint. I’ve since refocused and rebounded to hit on 4 of the final seven, and truly took a career-high two-game successful streak into final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl, having picked the Rams in 2022 — duh, I had no alternative — after which choosing the refreshing Chiefs to beat the boring Eagles.

Are you able to say three-peat? I can’t. I blew it once more final 12 months by choosing the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Chiefs as a result of my coronary heart informed me the Chiefs and all their Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce nonsense had turn out to be too distracting.

I used to be incorrect, in fact. It was the circus that triumphed over the company, and so this 12 months one would assume I lastly realized.

The Chiefs and their glamorous high-wire act are again. The Eagles and their hardscrabble concord have returned to dethrone them.

The Chiefs could make historical past with their third consecutive championship. Mahomes formally can turn out to be Tom Brady’s successor along with his fourth Tremendous Bowl title in, like, 10 minutes. Kelce can sing outdated rock and roll songs from the rostrum after which suggest to Swift within the confetti.

A Chiefs victory could be good narrative, good drama, an ideal ending.

Which is why I’m choosing in opposition to them. I’m a sucker no extra. This 12 months I’m not betting the most effective narrative. This 12 months I’m betting the most effective soccer crew.

And the Eagles are clearly, decidedly, unequivocally the most effective soccer crew.

Championship soccer shouldn’t be about fashion, it’s about substance. It’s not about appearances, it’s about depth. It’s not about angle, it’s about capability, sheer capability, and the Eagles have greater than the Chiefs by a big margin.

That is the place the Chiefs’ magic of 12 one-score wins ends. That is the place the Chiefs’ deplorable tomahawk chop stops. That is the place soccer’s luckiest crew turns into its most bloodied.

I’m choosing the Eagles in a beatdown, and hearken to me, this time I’m proper.

Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have gone 15-1 whereas successful their video games by a median of two touchdowns.

The Chiefs, in the meantime, have gained video games with doinked field-goal makes an attempt, blocked field-goal makes an attempt, unhealthy snaps, fourth-down tackles, and favorable officers rulings.

The Eagles have been darn good, the Chiefs have been darn lucky, and we’ll see that present itself from the primary second Jalen Hurts scrambles to the final second Mahomes slips.

The Eagles have the warmer quarterback, Hurts’ designed runs simpler this 12 months than Mahomes’ 14% charge of off-target passes. Hurts additionally has higher receiving weapons — A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith over Kelce — and one of many sport’s greatest offensive strains.

The Eagles have a greater protection — Jalen Carter is a mammoth run stopper and since early within the season they’ve given up a league-low 5.2 yards per move try. They’ve additionally recorded 10 takeaways this postseason, probably the most by an NFL crew with no turnovers.

The Chiefs protection, in the meantime, can’t cease the tush push — the Eagles are 3-0 in opposition to them in scoring touchdowns on the short-yardage play — and now they are going to be charged with stopping one thing far harder, somebody who will change this sport.

How can they decelerate Saquon Barkley? The reply is they’ll’t, and that would be the distinction within the Eagles’ win.

When the Eagles misplaced to the Chiefs two Tremendous Bowls in the past, Eagles working backs gained 45 yards. Barkley, the league’s main rusher who twice crushed the Rams, good points 45 yards each time he sneezes, and can change every part along with his unstoppable presence.

The Chiefs have given up a median of 108 yards to working backs in two playoff video games, a dip from their sturdy common season and an indication they could be sporting down. Barkley has spent all season breaking tackles for a jillion yards, and there’s no motive to assume he gained’t try this Sunday.

Will probably be sport … for a half. Will probably be a bruising battle of wills … till all-world Eagles deal with Lane Johnson takes over. Will probably be an thrilling battle of brains … till the Eagles’ extraordinary defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, dominates.

Ultimately, will probably be so apparent that even the wrong-way hack will hit it on the nostril.

Eagles 35, Chiefs 20.

And, as all the time … Chiefs followers, you’re welcome.