Tariffs, commerce and visas to dominate talks

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington and meets President Donald Trump later this week, there will probably be some heat hugs and shared laughs. However that won’t be all.

Trump and Modi have developed a robust private rapport over time, marked by high-profile conferences and joint appearances.

Since their first assembly in Washington in 2017, their bond has grown via different occasions, together with joint appearances at huge rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from shared worldviews and politics and a mutual strategic deal with countering China, a priority that has additionally strengthened the broader US-India partnership.

Not surprisingly, Trump has typically criticised India, however he has by no means criticised Modi.

And so, throughout Modi’s go to, the 2 leaders will most likely spend time mapping out subsequent steps within the US-India strategic partnership, which is already in a great place.

Modi will reportedly meet a number of members of Trump’s cupboard, in addition to US enterprise leaders and members of the Indian-American group.

He may additionally meet SpaceX and Tesla chief Elon Musk. Modi, eager to scale up India’s burgeoning electrical autos sector, can be completely happy if Musk opened a Tesla manufacturing facility in India.

And but the Trump-Modi conviviality and heady discuss of strategic partnership could masks a sobering actuality: throughout Modi’s go to, the connection’s transactional aspect will come into sharp reduction with every chief, particularly Trump, armed with an array of calls for.

Delhi is aware of Trump nicely. Lots of Modi’s present cupboard ministers additionally served throughout his earlier time period, which overlapped with a part of the primary Trump administration. That familiarity has been on show since Trump’s inauguration final month: Delhi has publicly signalled its willingness to decrease tariffs, take again undocumented Indian immigrants and purchase American oil.

It has already lowered some tariffs and brought again 104 undocumented Indians, with the primary airplane arriving in India final week. These pre-emptive steps are supposed to forestall Trump from making particular calls for of India and to cut back the chance of tensions with the brand new Trump administration.

Nonetheless, Trump could ask Modi to make further tariff reductions, to additional chip away at a US items and companies commerce deficit with India that has approached $46bn (£37.10bn) lately. However an impediment may grow to be a possibility: Modi could name on Trump to enter into bilateral talks on an financial partnership accord meant to cut back tariffs on each side.

Lately, Delhi has proven a rising willingness to pursue commerce offers. The Trump administration could show to be a extra prepared interlocutor than the Biden administration, which imposed heavy environmental and labour-related circumstances on new commerce agreements.

Trump may additionally ask Modi to take again extra undocumented Indians. Provided that some estimates put the quantity at greater than 700,000 – the third-largest such group within the US – this will probably be a troublesome and delicate concern for Delhi to navigate.

Final week, India’s Overseas Minister S Jaishankar informed parliament that the federal government was working with the US to make sure Indian residents weren’t mistreated whereas being deported after studies of them being shackled sparked anger.

Trump may additionally name on Modi to purchase extra American oil.

In 2021, India was the prime vacation spot for American oil exports, however the Russian invasion of Ukraine introduced main adjustments in world oil markets and prompted Delhi to ramp up imports of low-cost oil from shut accomplice Russia. The value level will decide how a lot oil India is prepared to purchase from the US.

Modi may additionally come along with his personal power ask: put money into Indian nuclear power. Delhi is amending its nuclear legal responsibility regulation and has introduced a brand new nuclear power mission, in an try and sharpen worldwide curiosity within the gas.

India goals to satisfy half its power necessities via renewable power by 2030. Asking Trump to put money into nuclear gas quantities to a possible completely happy medium: it’s cleaner than fossil fuels, however far faraway from the photo voltaic and wind energy that will not strike the Trump administration as a pretty funding.

Expertise will most likely be mentioned as nicely.

This was a fast-growing area for bilateral relations within the Biden period, due to the 2022 implementation of the Initiative on Important and Rising Applied sciences (iCET), which each side view as a brand new cornerstone for strategic partnership. iCET is supposed to be straight overseen by the 2 nationwide safety advisers – to keep away from getting slowed down in forms – which suggests they have to every be personally invested in it.

Modi will seemingly search assurances from Trump and his Nationwide Safety Adviser Mike Waltz that they continue to be dedicated to this. Given Washington’s deal with countering China by making India a much bigger a part of tech world provide chains, they most likely will.

Additionally on the tech co-operation entrance, Modi could make a pitch for Trump to take care of the H-1B visa regime. These visas for extremely expert overseas employees, closely criticised by some influential Trump supporters, have been awarded to giant numbers of Indian tech workers within the US.

Different nations may additionally come up throughout Modi’s conversations in Washington. Iran may loom particularly giant.

Delhi is partnering with Tehran to develop a port in Chabahar metropolis – a part of a broader Indian technique to strengthen connectivity hyperlinks with Central Asia, by way of Iran and Afghanistan. However final week, the US administration launched a presidential memorandum outlining Trump’s “most stress” marketing campaign on Tehran, which hints at eradicating sanctions waivers for these conducting business actions in Chabahar. Modi could search readability on what this implies for Delhi.

Trump may additionally gauge Modi’s place on a giant overseas coverage precedence: ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Delhi has a robust curiosity in these wars winding down. Modi’s place on the conflict in Ukraine – calling for an finish to the battle with out criticising Putin or Russia – echoes that of Trump.

India’s particular relationship with Russia and shut ties with Israel could immediate Trump to see if Modi would need to play a third-party mediator function as nicely. Modi would most likely be comfy doing so provided that the events are receptive to exterior mediation.

However regardless of some doubtlessly delicate discussions this week, each leaders will need to preserve a constructive tone.

In that regard, the Indo-Pacific Quad will probably be simply what the physician ordered.

Trump strongly backs this group which consists of the US, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on countering Beijing.

In his first time period, Trump elevated the Quad’s annual conferences to the overseas minister stage and Biden elevated them additional to the leaders’ stage.

India is scheduled to host this yr’s Quad assembly and Modi could invite Trump to Delhi to attend this.

Trump reportedly isn’t a giant fan of worldwide journey however India is a visit he’ll most likely be eager to make – to deepen his private relationship with Modi and to advance a multifaceted bilateral partnership that extends nicely past the transactionalism that can carry the day in Washington this week.

Michael Kugelman is the director of the Wilson Heart’s South Asia Institute in Washington

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