Shipping volumes surged in red states and fell in blue states after Donald Trump won the 2024 election – suggesting that Trump supporters are poised to fuel holiday spending while Harris supporters cut back, according to a report.
In states that went red, shipping volumes jumped an average of 50.4% after the election, according to shipping data gathered by e-commerce logistics provider Grip first reported by CNBC.
Meanwhile, shipping volumes in blue states dropped by an average of 11.2%, according to the data. Only two Democrat-won states, Illinois and Minnesota, saw shipping volumes increase after Trump’s win. All other blue states saw their volumes fall.
Trump’s win – which many accredit to concerns about the economy – has boosted Trump voters’ outlook on the economy as they hope the president-elect will be able to tame inflation and lower prices.
But Harris supporters are concerned Trump might reheat inflation with some of his proposed policies, like slapping imports from China, Canada and Mexico with hefty tariffs.
The data suggests holiday spending trends may be split among presidential vote this year, with about half the population feeling confident about the future of the US economy and the other half feeling worried – a factor most holiday spending forecasts did not take into account, since these studies were released ahead of the November election.
Spending during the holiday shopping season between Thanksgiving and Christmas is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% this year, according to the National Retail Federation.
That increase is the slowest growth since 2018, when holiday retail sales rose 1.8% from the year before.
There are a number of reasons for the muted outlook, including a particularly short period of time between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year.
Many reports predicting small retail growth also anticipated a lengthy election count process that never materialized, or a contested election that might have distracted consumers from shopping.
And holiday sales growth could be even smaller than reports indicate this year, since the National Retail Federation’s forecast, along with Bain and other firms’ predictions, don’t account for inflation, according to the CNBC report.
When higher-than-usual prices are excluded from sales growth, holiday spending is only expected to rise 0.5%, Isaac Krakovsky, the consulting retail leader for EY Americas, told CNBC.
After Trump won the presidency, consumer sentiment ticked up 1.8% in November since the month before as Americans hope the former Republican leader will be able to lower prices. But inflation continues to be a big concern for many consumers.
Retail sales during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping holidays are expected to grow at a faster pace than overall holiday spending since cash-strapped consumers have been holding off on discretionary purchases for big deals and discounts.