One of the more fascinating subplots in the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff is how all of these realigned and suddenly crowded conference races are factoring into that Playoff picture. Sure, Tennessee–Georgia is a massive game for the 12-team bracket, but so is LSU–Florida. And Arizona State–Kansas State. And Clemson–Pitt. And a number of other matchups up and down the schedule.
So let’s rank the top 10 games of Week 12, starting with honorable mentions and counting down.
Honorable Mention: UCLA at Washington (Fri.), No. 25 Tulane at Navy, Virginia at No. 8 Notre Dame, Boston College at No. 14 SMU, Nebraska at USC, Cincinnati at Iowa State, No. 18 Washington State at New Mexico
(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
10. No. 23 Missouri (7-2) at No. 21 South Carolina (6-3), 4:15 p.m., SEC Network
One of only two ranked matchups this week, though oddly this one won’t have much impact on the SEC or CFP races, despite Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s message following last week’s wild win over Oklahoma.
Eli Drinkwitz on miraculous win over Oklahoma:
“This keeps us in the Playoff hunt.
“That’s right, I said it, Playoff hunt!”
pic.twitter.com/CxB1WzfL6y— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) November 10, 2024
The Athletic’s Playoff projection model gives both teams a less than 1 percent chance of winning the conference or reaching the CFP, but each is still battling to stay ranked, which could impact others. The Ole Miss and LSU resumes would benefit from a South Carolina victory, while Texas A&M is rooting for Mizzou. The only guaranteed winner is Alabama, which beat both of these teams.
Line: South Carolina -14
9. No. 20 Clemson (7-2) at Pitt (7-2), noon, ESPN
A few weeks ago this looked like it would be a showdown of ACC contenders. Then Clemson lost to Louisville and Pitt dropped two in a row, the Panthers crashing out of the CFP rankings in the process. Now both teams are fighting just to stay in the ACC picture, and neither has a Top-25 win on the resume. Clemson is tied with Miami with one conference loss, but if both teams win out, the Hurricanes would have the tiebreaker. The Tigers can boost their overall resume with a rivalry win over currently ranked South Carolina in the regular-season finale but will still need help to make the ACC title game. Pitt needs an upset over Clemson to avoid a three-game skid after a 7-0 start.
Line: Clemson -11.5
8. No. 13 Boise State (8-1) at San Jose State (6-3), 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Boise State is still on track to win the Mountain West and claim one of the five automatic Playoff bids, and running back Ashton Jeanty is on pace to finish the regular season with the second-most rushing yards in a single season, behind only Barry Sanders in 1988. Jeanty had 209 rushing yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win over Nevada, adding to his FBS-leading total of 23 rushing touchdowns. The Broncos face a San Jose State team in its first year under Ken Niumatalolo and in second in the Mountain West in yards per game allowed. San Jose State is fresh off an impressive win over Oregon State.
Line: Boise State -14
7. Arizona State (7-2) at No. 16 Kansas State (7-2), 7 p.m., ESPN
Kansas State is ahead of No. 17 Colorado in the CFP rankings thanks to a narrow head-to-head win in October, but the Wildcats are a game behind the Buffs in the Big 12 standings after suffering a second league loss against Houston a couple of weeks ago. Even if K-State gets the help it would need elsewhere to reach the Big 12 championship, the rest of the schedule is a challenge: Arizona State, Cincinnati and at Iowa State, all three of which enter this weekend with winning records.
The Sun Devils expect to get stud running back Cam Skattebo back from injury after he missed the win over UCF. The senior is eighth in the FBS at 125.4 rushing yards per game.
Line: Kansas State -7.5
6. No. 22 LSU (6-3) at Florida (4-5), 3:30 p.m., ABC
If you’re wondering why this game, between two teams that got thumped last week, is this high on the list, it’s because there remains a rather plausible roadmap by which LSU can still make the SEC Championship Game. But that would require the Tigers to win out the rest of the regular season, starting with a trip to Gainesville. Florida hopes to have freshman quarterback DJ Lagway back from injury, and LSU is in need of serious defensive soul-searching after getting diced up by mobile quarterbacks Marcel Reed and Jalen Milroe in back-to-back losses, allowing a combined 80 points and 11 rushing touchdowns to Texas A&M and Alabama.
Line: LSU -4
5. No. 1 Oregon (10-0) at Wisconsin (5-4), 7:30 p.m., NBC
The Ducks beat Idaho by 10 and Boise State by 3 on a last-second field goal to start the season. Since then, aside from the 1-point win over Ohio State, Oregon’s seven other victories have all been by at least 21 points — which is why it’s surprising this spread is only 13.5. The Badgers, coming off an idle week, have lost two in a row, including a 32-point loss to Iowa.
Oregon has a chance to start 11-0 for only the second time in program history and first since 2010 when the Ducks reached the national championship and lost to Auburn. That was also the same season Wisconsin defeated No. 1 Ohio State.
Line: Oregon -13.5
4. Kansas (3-6) at No. 6 BYU (9-0), 10:15 p.m., ESPN
BYU’s dream season continued with an incredible comeback win over Utah in the Holy War rivalry last Saturday, followed by a three-spot climb up the CFP rankings Tuesday. The Cougars are one of four remaining undefeated teams in the FBS and alone atop the Big 12 standings. They meet a Kansas team that has disappointed this season but looked much improved in recent weeks. The Jayhawks, winners of two of their last three, scored 45 points in a win over then-ranked Iowa State last weekend and can continue to play spoiler with BYU and Colorado up next.
Line: BYU -2.5
3. Utah (4-5) at No. 17 Colorado (7-2), noon, Fox
A year after dominating headlines as a 4-8 team that finished last in the Pac-12, Colorado is a top-20 team with a Heisman Trophy favorite in two-way star Travis Hunter, as well as a clear path to win the Big 12 and reach the Playoff. The Buffs are still commanding plenty of attention (including Deion Sanders co-hosting a new talk show!), but they’ve earned it with their play. It’s created an ideal scenario thus far for the Big 12: unbeaten BYU and media darling Colorado at the top of the standings, with the potential for a conference-championship clash and possibly even room for both to reach the Playoff, if things break right.
That starts with the Buffs hosting a 10 a.m. local time kickoff against a Utah team coming off that devastating and contentious rivalry loss to BYU.
Line: Colorado -11.5
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2. No. 3 Texas (8-1) at Arkansas (5-4), noon, ABC
Texas is up to No. 3 in the CFP rankings largely on the strength of a one-loss record. The Longhorns have mostly passed the eye test, like last week’s blowout win over Florida, but have zero Top-25 wins, with their best victory coming on the road at Vanderbilt. Still, quarterback Quinn Ewers looked healthy and sharp against the Gators, and Texas controls its own destiny in the SEC and will reach the league championship if it wins out, starting with Saturday’s road trip against a pesky, humbled and well-rested Arkansas. The Hogs are coming off an idle week following an embarrassing home loss to Ole Miss and expect to have dynamic quarterback Taylen Green healthy. A victory for Texas won’t change the resume criticism, but that won’t matter if it keeps stacking wins.
Line: Texas -12.5
1. No. 7 Tennessee (8-1) at No. 12 Georgia (7-2), 7:30 p.m., ABC
This is an elimination game for Georgia, which dropped out of the Playoff field in Tuesday’s rankings and would surely be cooked with three losses. However, a win by the Dawgs — who are double-digit favorites — drags the Vols down to the quagmire of two-loss teams in SEC play, setting the table for some title-game tiebreaker nightmares. Among the eight teams entering the weekend with either one or two losses in the SEC standings, there are only two games remaining that pit those teams against one another: this one, and Texas at Texas A&M on Nov. 30. A lot could change before that, but Saturday’s result will be impactful.
Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is questionable, with ESPN’s Pete Thamel reporting that Iamaleava is in concussion protocol after leaving last week’s win against Mississippi State. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has had his own non-injury issues, throwing 12 interceptions over his past six games.
Line: Georgia -9.5
(Photo of Georgia’s Cash Jones and Ole Miss’ Jared Ivey: Justin Ford / Getty Images)